2021-12-23-联合国贸易发展委员会-对区域全面经济伙伴关系（RCEP）关税减让的评估（英）_22页_1mb

RCEP Agreement Tariff Concessions Analysis Summary

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement involving 15 East Asian and Pacific nations, signed in 2020, aimed at enhancing economic integration through tariff reductions and trade facilitation. It represents approximately 30% of global GDP and accounts for about 13% of global trade in goods.

Tariff concessions under RCEP are significant but targeted, focusing primarily on trade related to China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea, as existing agreements already apply low tariffs to trade among other members. On average, concessions involve reductions of about 9 percentage points across roughly 6% of tariff lines. The commitments are differential, with higher reductions for countries with initially higher tariffs and discrimination across members. A key finding is that these concessions reflect mutual political economy considerations, balancing the interests of importing governments and exporters' lobbies through reciprocal reductions, aligning with trade theory predictions based on import volumes, import demand elasticities, and export supply elasticities.

Quantitative impact analysis shows RCEP tariff concessions are expected to increase intra-RCEP trade by approximately $40 billion, representing an increase of about 2%. Trade diversion dominates trade creation, with substantial benefits for most RCEP members, albeit unequally. For example, Japan is the largest beneficiary due to trade diversion, while smaller economies like Cambodia, Indonesia, Philippines, and Viet Nam may face negative effects but overall remain better off than non-members due to trade creation offsetting losses. Non-member countries like the EU, US, and others also experience trade diversion, though impacts vary.

The study concludes that RCEP tariff concessions demonstrate cooperation among members, leading to gains for participants and following efficiency-based patterns, but they may limit further negotiation for new members.