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COLOMBIA: ELECTION TRACKER - FEBRUARY 2018

Core Content Overview

The 2018 Colombian presidential election saw a complex political landscape with shifting alliances and growing public interest in candidates' policies. The election involved a mix of traditional parties and emerging coalitions, with key issues including economic policy, social programs, and the ongoing peace process.

Main Candidates and Trends

• Gustavo Petro (Left-wing):

  • A former mayor of Bogotá and senator, Petro has gained popularity, especially among youth and lower-income groups.
  • His rise in polls threatens the lead of Sergio Fajardo.
  • He advocates for a more regressive taxation system, increased public spending on education, and a focus on social reforms.
  • His campaign emphasizes tackling corruption and inequality.

• Sergio Fajardo (Centre-left):

  • Former mayor of Medellín and governor of Antioquia, Fajardo remains the leading candidate in polls.
  • His economic policies are not fully defined, but he has pledged to maintain prudent macroeconomic policies.
  • He is part of the "Coalición Colombia" coalition, which includes Clara López.
  • Fajardo is seen as a strong contender in the second round, but his debt levels as governor have drawn criticism.

• Germán Vargas Lleras (Right-wing):

  • Former president and current senator, Vargas Lleras has strong support in rural areas.
  • His coalition includes the "Polo" party and is seen as having a high potential for votes.
  • He supports progressive tax policies and has a strong presence in the media.

• Iván Duque (Centre-right):

  • A young senator backed by the Centro Democrático party, led by Alvaro Uribe.
  • His coalition includes Marta Lucía Ramírez and Alejandro Ordoñez.
  • Duque's campaign is seen as having a strong potential in urban areas.

• Humberto de la Calle (Centre-left):

  • A former peace process negotiator and current Interior Minister.
  • He has joined forces with Clara López and is expected to run as part of a centre-leaning coalition.
  • His campaign focuses on maintaining current macroeconomic policies and promoting peace.

Coalitions Overview

• "Pro-peace" Alliance:

  • Formed by Humberto de la Calle and Clara López.
  • De la Calle is a member of the current Santos administration.
  • The coalition aims to continue the peace process and promote economic stability.

• Right-wing Coalition (Uribe-Pastrana):

  • Includes former presidents Alvaro Uribe and Andrés Pastrana.
  • The coalition includes prominent figures like Iván Duque and Marta Lucía Ramírez.
  • Expected to gain momentum once a candidate is chosen.

• Coalición Colombia:

  • Includes Sergio Fajardo and Clara López.
  • Focused on infrastructure, education, and public services.
  • Has a strong base in urban areas and is seen as a potential winner in the second round.

Key Polls and Trends

• Polls Show a Tight Race:

  • Sergio Fajardo leads in the first round, but Gustavo Petro is rising and could challenge him.
  • The right-wing coalition is expected to improve its standing once a candidate is chosen.

• Voter Preferences:

  • A significant portion of voters do not identify with any political party.
  • Right-wing parties have a strong base, with Centro Democrático being a major player.
  • Left-wing candidates like Petro and Fajardo have high support among youth and lower-income groups.

• Economic Policy Platforms:

  • Centro Democrático (Iván Duque): Advocates for tax cuts, supports the current central bank framework, and seeks to integrate into global value chains.
  • Cambio Radical (Vargas Lleras): Supports tax cuts with a focus on reducing evasion and boosting private activity.
  • Gustavo Petro: Promotes regressive taxation and increased public spending, with a focus on education and social programs.
  • Sergio Fajardo: Supports progressive taxation and aims to boost infrastructure and education through new revenue sources.

Voter Profiles and Demographics

• Youth and Lower Income Groups:

  • Strongly support Gustavo Petro.
  • More likely to use the internet for political engagement.

• Higher Income and Urban Groups:

  • Favor centre-right candidates like Iván Duque and centre-left candidates like Fajardo.

• Rural Voters:

  • Tend to support German Vargas Lleras.

• Education and Internet Usage:

  • A majority of Colombians are internet users, influencing political perceptions and voting behavior.

Public Concerns and Issues

• Insecurity:

  • A major concern for many voters.
  • Linked to the country's political and economic instability.

• Corruption:

  • High rejection rates for left-wing candidates like Petro and Córdoba.
  • Public dissatisfaction with current government handling of corruption.

• Unemployment:

  • At around 10%, a growing concern that could influence voter behavior.

• Trust in Political Institutions:

  • Low trust levels, with many voters skeptical of the current political landscape.

Political Spectrum and Party Platforms

• Political Spectrum:

  • The political landscape is divided between left, centre-left, centre-right, and right-wing candidates.
  • Centre-left candidates like Fajardo and de la Calle are seen as more aligned with the current government's policies.

• Party Platforms:

  • Centro Democrático: Pro-market, pro-peace, and supports tax cuts.
  • Cambio Radical: Pro-peace, supports tax cuts and reduced evasion.
  • Gustavo Petro: Pro-interventionist, focuses on social programs and reducing inequality.
  • Sergio Fajardo: Pro-peace, supports progressive taxation and public investment.

Election Calendar and System

• Election Date: March 11, 2018.
• Election System: Proportional representation with a threshold for seats.
• Coalitions: The ruling centrist coalition holds a majority of governorships, while right-wing coalitions are gaining traction.

Conclusion

The 2018 Colombian presidential election is marked by a shift in political alliances and a growing divide between left and right-wing candidates. Voter preferences are influenced by economic policies, social issues, and the legacy of the peace process. The race is expected to be tight, with Fajardo leading but facing a significant challenge from Petro. The election will be a crucial test of public sentiment and the effectiveness of political coalitions in shaping the future of Colombia.