UBS_Economics-US_Economic_Perspectives_April_CPI_Preview_Early_tariff_ef...-115221300_12页_1mb

ubS's analysis of the us economic situation, focusing on april cpi preview and early tariff effects:

• tariffs from february 2025 have started showing signs in cpi data, with april likely to see initial impacts.
• core non-transportation goods prices are expected to rise sharply in april due to tariff effects, supporting inflation.
• headline cpi is projected at 0.28% for april, with 12-month cpi inflation edging down to 2.37%, the lowest since march 2021.
• core cpi is forecast at 0.32%, higher than consensus, driven by core transportation services and lodging.
• risks are balanced, with core cpi increase expected between 23bp and 38bp.
• used car prices and oer (rental costs) are factors influencing core goods trends.
• look-ahead: inflation is expected to rise starting in may, with tariffs pushing prices higher.

key economists involved: alan detmeister, jonathan pingle, abigail watt, amanda wilcox, pierre lafourcade, sonia meskin.