2022-08-11-莱坊-The_London_Review_Q3_2022_5页_1mb

报告摘要

Trading Activity: London's prime sales market showed an annual growth of 5.1% in 2022, with sales activity increasing in Q2 (June). However, quarterly growth slowed to 1.5%, indicating a cooling market.
Supply-Demand Balance: Demand, driven by affordability, equity release, and international buyers, still outstrips supply, especially in Prime Central London (PCL). The race for space is calming down as supply begins to catch up.
Key Metrics: Offers accepted reached a 10-year high in Q2, and the number of new prospective buyers was the third highest in a decade. Rental values in PCL increased by 2.5% year-on-year.
Mortgage Rates: Rising mortgage rates may eventually curb demand. International buyers and domestic demand support continued growth and activity.

Demand-Driven: Despite improving supply, lettings remains a landlord’s market. New prospect tenants increased by 56% compared to the five-year average, and demand is strong.
Rental Growth: PCL and Prime Outer London (POL) rental market values increased by 8.4% and 7.4%, respectively, in the first six months of 2022. Supply is still lagging demand, but early signs of a supply pick-up are emerging.
Lettings Forecasts: Rent growth is revised up from 8% to 11% for PCL in 2022. Rental value growth is expected to reach 26.1% cumulatively over the next five years.

PCL Price Growth: Average prices in PCL are forecast to grow by 4% in 2022 and 6% in 2023.
Outperformance: PCL is expected to outperform the wider UK property sales market due to the return of international buyers and resilient domestic demand.
Distortion Factors: Supply constraints and the cost-of-living squeeze keep pressure on prices and rentals.