20181224-川财证券-Chuancai_Securities_Research_Highlights_Weekly__China_Market_Weekly_Outlook_8页_394kb

报告摘要

Equity Research Report Summary

Core Content

This report is a weekly equity research summary issued by Chuancai Securities Limited, dated 2018/12/24. It provides insights into the Chinese equity market, key industries, and macroeconomic factors affecting the market. The report also outlines investment recommendations and highlights potential risks.

Main Views

1. Market Overview

The Shanghai Composite fell by 2.99%, closing at 2516.25 points.
The Shenzhen Component declined by 3.83%, closing at 7337.60 points.
The ChiNext index dropped by 3.06%, closing at 1270.30 points.
The CSI 300 index fell by 4.31%, closing at 3029.40 points.
Funds outstanding for foreign exchange have been decreasing for four consecutive months, contributing to RMB exchange rate pressure.
The PBOC's monetary policy and financial risk control may limit the adjustment of monetary policy.
The domestic holiday may impact liquidity, leading to benchmark rate fluctuations.

2. Industry Highlights

Power Industry

Coal prices are expected to return to the green zone in the long term.
The installed capacity of power plants (6000kw and above) increased by 5.2% year-on-year.
Electricity consumption grew by 6.3% in November, with a 2% increase in growth rate compared to the previous year.
Major coastal power plants have returned to normal coal consumption levels, but high inventory may suppress prices.
New nuclear units are expected to improve the performance of the electric power sector.
Recommended stocks: Huaneng International (600011.SH), Huadian International (600027.SH), Wanneng Electric Power (000543.SH), China National Nuclear Power (601985.SH).

Banking

Bank profitability concerns are influencing the banking sector's stock performance.
The PBOC's long-term money issuance strategy and financial risk control may narrow bank interest spreads.
Asset quality could worsen due to support for small and medium enterprises.
Investor concerns about the banking sector valuation have been reflected in the current market value.
Opportunities for higher value are expected in the banking sector.
Recommended stocks: China Construction Bank (601939.SH), Industrial Bank (601166.SH).

Leisure Service

The tourism sector is weak due to the off-season and low domestic consumption.
Catering business rose by 1.85%, while hotel, scenic, and tourism sectors declined.
Hainan's tax exemption policy is becoming more flexible, leading to sustained growth in tax-free sales.
Recommended stocks: China International Travel Service (601888.SH), Songcheng (300144.SZ).

Food & Beverage

Maotai's "Zodiac Plan" was launched on December 21st, with online sales starting and franchised stores expected to have the product on January 1st, 2019.
At least 30% of the output of the "Zodiac Plan" will be available before the Chinese Spring Festival.
The "plan of 100 billion" is expected to be achieved in advance, with capacity expansion and category innovation boosting operating income.

Key Information

Risk Reminder:
- Risk related to major macro-policy changes.
- Systematic risk.
- Potential data delay.
Ratings Explanation:
- Stock ratings: "BUY" for 30% or more return; "Increase" for 15%-30%; "Neutral" for -15% to 15%; "SELL" for -15% or below.
- Sector ratings: "OVERWEIGHT" for 30% or more outperformance; "Increase" for 15%-30%; "Neutral" for -15% to +15%; "UNDERWEIGHT" for 15% or more underperformance.
Important Disclaimer:
- The report is confidential and for clients only.
- The information is based on reliable sources but not guaranteed.
- Investors should make their own decisions and consult with tax, accounting, or legal advisers.
- The report does not guarantee income or reduce investment risk.
- The copyright belongs to Chuancai Securities Limited, and unauthorized distribution is prohibited.

Analysts

Li CHEN (SAC Reg. No: S11005170600010)
- Contact: 010-66495901, chenli@cczq.com
Wenyi ZHOU (SAC Reg. No: S1100117120006)
- Contact: 010-66495910, zhouwenyi@cczq.com

Research Division

Chuancai Securities Research Division has four offices in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chengdu.
It covers Macro Research, Industry Research, Equity Research, Financial Engineering, Fixed-Income Research, and Global Market Research.
Provides professional analysis, consulting, research, and services to policymakers, institutional investors, and enterprises.

Global Market Research Department

Focuses on global investors and offers in-depth analysis of world's top investment institutions.
Provides expert opinions on China's capital market and financial markets.
Offers asset allocation research and coverage of China A-Shares, Hong Kong, and other Asia-Pacific markets.