20230804-大越期货-聚烯烃早报_18页_743kb

LLDPE Summary

Overview

Fundamentals: Macro outlook improved due to Fed interest rate hike and China PMI increase; cost supported by原油走势偏强 and safety checks; supply low due to low开工率, but US dollar PE may suppress prices; demand weak in film off-season with low开工率; inventory neutral. Current现货价: 8200 (+0).

Support Factors

• Improved macro expectations
• Cost support from原油 and safety checks

Resistance Factors

• Weak agricultural demand (农膜淡季)
• Low downstream utilization
• Weak import data (负增长)

Key Logic: Macro improvement partially offsets demand weakness

Risk: Crude oil volatility

PP Summary

Overview

Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, macro outlook improved; cost supported; supply low but new plants expected; demand weak in off-season; inventory neutral. Current现货价: 7430 (+0).

Support Factors

• Improved macro expectations
• Cost support from原油

Resistance Factors

• New plant capacity
• Weak downstream demand
• Weak import data

Key Logic: Macro improvement balances supply-demand dynamics

Risk: Crude oil volatility