20240219-国盛证券-社会服务_出行高景气_春节数据略超预期_3页_345kb

报告摘要

Executive Summary

The 2024 Chinese New Year holiday demonstrated exceptionally high demand in the tourism sector, with national domestic tourism reaching 474 billion人次 and total spending exceeding 632 billion yuan, both significantly exceeding 2023 and 2019 levels by approximately 473% and 190% in terms of travel numbers, respectively. This high intensity is attributed to trends like "return + travel," increased inter-regional trips, sustained outbound tourism, and the rise of small airport destinations and self-driving tours. Consumer spending in dining, film, and retail also surged, contributing to an overall market recovery. The outlook for 2024 is positive, with projections for continued growth in domestic and outbound tourism, supported by strong holiday performance.

Key Data From Spring Festival 2024

Tourism Statistics: National domestic travel reached 474 billion人次, with total spending of 632 billion yuan, both up 343% year-on-year.
Transportation: Total passenger-sending reached 22.93 billion人次, with increases in rail, road, water, and air transport.
Scenic Spots: Popular destinations like Mount Hua and Songcheng showed substantial growth in visitor numbers and revenue, with some exceeding 2019 levels by 70% or more.
Duty-Free Sales: Regulated 24.89 billion yuan in sales.
Hotels: Many chains and cities reported higher occupancy and revenue, such as Jinhualijia exceeding 2019 levels.

Travel Trends

"Return + Travel" Trend: More than 70% of travelers left mid-holiday, focusing on combining family time with outing.
Inter-Regional and Outbound Tourism: "Warm winter" destinations saw growth, while "snow holidays" in colder regions were popular. Outbound tourism is above 2019 levels.
Small Airport Tourism: Cities with smaller airports saw double-digit growth in tourism volumes.
Self-Driving Tours: Autonomy is a major trend, with significant growth in rental vehicles and personal trips.

Consumer Market Performance

Dining: High demand in restaurants and local eateries, with chain brands like海底捞 seeing growth.
Film: Box office records broken, with total revenue over 80 billion yuan.
Retail: Shopping centers and commercial districts showed strong visitor and sales increases, including jewelry sales.

Historical Context and 2024 Outlook

In 2023, tourism recovered strongly, with domestic trips of 489 billion人次.
2024 predictions include domestic tourism growing to 60 billion人次 and outbound to 1.3 billion人次, with overall confidence in sustaining this momentum.

Investment Recommendations

Suggested stocks: Focus on companies like九华旅游, 宋城演艺, and 锦江酒店 for strong performance and potential.
Recommendation areas: Hotels, consumer-focused stocks, and tourism operators.