基尔世界经济研究所-2021年第一季度自由区世界经济晴雨表（英文）-2021.4-14页_249kb

Free Zones World Economic Barometer (F-WEB) 2021Q1 Summary

Core Content

The Free Zones World Economic Barometer (F-WEB) for the first quarter of 2021 indicates a broad-based recovery from the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, with improved sentiment across most economic dimensions. Despite this progress, the economic conditions in Free Zones remain below pre-pandemic levels.

Main Views

• Economic Recovery: Free Zones have started to recover from the pandemic's shock. The share of Free Zones reporting a good current situation increased to 30%, up from 10% in the final quarter of 2020. The share of Free Zones reporting poor conditions dropped significantly from 37% to 16%.
• Economic Conditions Index: The F-WEB Economic Conditions Index increased substantially from -27 in 2020Q4 to +14 in 2021Q1, but is still well below its pre-pandemic level of 48.
• Economic Activity Improvements: The recovery is reflected in investment, employment, profitability, and turnover, though turnover improvement was relatively modest.
• Optimism in the Near Future: The outlook for the next three months has become significantly more optimistic, with the F-WEB indicator for expected situation rising to 42, more than doubling from the previous quarter's value of 20.
• Pandemic Impact: A majority of Free Zones are still affected by the pandemic, though the negative impact is decreasing. Only 6% report an increase in business, the first positive share recorded.
• Recovery Timeline: Most Free Zones (45%) expect the recovery from the pandemic to take between one and two years, while 14% anticipate it will take more than two years.
• Global Trade Environment: The assessment of the global trade environment is diverse, with 34% reporting a deterioration, 29% a stagnation, and 37% an unchanged situation.

Key Information

Current Economic Situation

Expected Economic Situation

Special Questions

1. Current Pandemic Impact:

   • 56% of Free Zones report some or substantial negative impacts from the pandemic.
   • 25% report no real impact, up from 20% in 2020Q4.
   • 6% report an increase in business, the first positive share on record.

2. Future Pandemic Impact:

   • 44% expect some negative impact in the next three months.
   • 3% expect substantially negative impact, down from 20% in the previous quarter.
   • 36% expect no impact or somewhat positive impact.

3. Signs of Improvement:

   • 58% of Free Zones see first signs of improvement, up from 47% in 2020Q4.
   • 31% report no signs of recovery yet.
   • 11% report no impact.

4. Economic Activity Decrease in 2020:

   • 50% of Free Zones reported a decrease of 0–25%.
   • 33% saw a decline of more than 25%.
   • 16% reported an increase in activity.

5. Expected Recovery Time:

   • 11% expect full recovery already achieved.
   • 30% expect recovery in less than one year.
   • 45% expect recovery in between one and two years.
   • 14% expect recovery in more than two years.

6. Global Trade Environment:

   • 37% assess the trade environment as unchanged.
   • 34% report a deterioration.
   • 29% report a positive development, down from 37% in 2020Q1.

Survey Details

• The 2021Q1 survey is the 13th round of the F-WEB.
• It was conducted between March 8 and March 26, 2021.
• 43 Free Zones from 31 countries participated.
• The F-WEB uses qualitative responses from dropdown menus, assigning +100 for positive, -100 for negative, and 0 for neutral answers.
• The F-WEB indicator is calculated as the average of responses from participants.

Next Steps

• The next F-WEB survey is scheduled for May 2021.
• Unregistered Free Zones interested in sharing their assessments are invited to contact FWEB.worldfzo@ifw-kiel.de.