20251112-大越期货-螺卷早报_39页_2mb

Report Summary: 螺卷早报 (2025-11-12)

Introduction

This report is issued by Danyue Futures Investment Consulting Department. The author is Hu Yuxiu, with从业资格证号 F03105325 and投资咨询证号 Z0021337. The report carries an advisory qualification number 证监许可【2012】1091号 from the China Securities Regulatory Commission. It is not an investment recommendation and should be used only for reference; market risks are inherent. Investors should make independent decisions.

Market Analysis

Steel Bar (螺纹) Analysis

• Fundamentals: Demand remains weak, inventory is rising, real estate is in a downward cycle, indicating a bearish sentiment.
• Basis:现货价格 3190, with a basis of 165, providing a positive aspect due to liquidity.
• Inventory: National inventory in 35 major cities is 425.7万吨, showing a monthly decrease but annual increase, considered neutral.
• Price Movements: Trading below the 20-day moving average, 20-day line is downward trending, viewed as bearish.
• 主力持仓: Net short position with increasing short positions, contributing to a bearish outlook.
• Expectations: Overall bearish due to continuing demand降温, domestic capacity reduction plans, and potential supply constraints; positive factors include low production, high现货升水, and capacity reduction expectations.
• Positives: Low output, spot price advantages.
• Negatives: Persistent real estate downturn, weaker than expected demand.

Hot Rolled Coil (热卷) Analysis

• Fundamentals: Supply and demand are weakening, inventory continues to rise, exports face obstacles, with domestic policy implications, viewed as neutral to slightly bearish.
• Basis:现货价格 3280, with a basis of 38, offering a positive influence.
• Inventory: National inventory in 33 cities is 333.02万吨, showing monthly increase, but annual increase is bearish.
• Price Movements: Below 20-day moving average with 20-day line flat, considered bearish.
• 主力持仓: Net short position with increasing shorts, reinforcing a bearish stance.
• Expectations: Overall bearish due to inventory growth, export blockades, and capacity reduction policies; positives include decent demand and high spot prices.
• Positives: Reasonable demand levels, high现货升水.
• Negatives: Seasonal slowdown in demand and pessimistic market outlook.

Overall Outlook for Market

Both螺纹and热卷 exhibit a bearish trend driven by factors like real estate weakness and policy-induced supply issues. Capacity reduction plans add volatility, encouraging an震荡偏空 (concerning) approach. Charts and data highlight risks in pricing and inventories.