2015年-世界发展银行全球_Paraiba_State_Brazil___Agricultural_Sector_Risk_Assessment_189页_6mb

Paraíba State, Brazil: Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment and Management Summary

Core Content

This document presents a comprehensive agricultural sector risk assessment and management strategy for the state of Paraíba, Brazil, prepared by the World Bank Group in collaboration with the State Secretariat for Agriculture, Livestock and Aquiculture Development (SEDAP) and the Cooperar project. The study is divided into two volumes: Volume 1 focuses on risk identification and assessment, while Volume 2 outlines a risk management framework and action plan.

Main Agricultural Sectors and Subsectors

The agricultural sector in Paraíba is analyzed through four key subsectors:

• Sugar Cane
• Fruticulture (commercial fruit production)
• Family Agriculture in the Semi-arid Zone
• Livestock Production Chains

These subsectors are identified as the main value chains due to their economic importance and high vulnerability to various risks.

Key Risks Identified

1. Sugar Cane Supply Chain

• Production Risks:
  • Drought and irregular precipitation
  • Contamination with Ferrugem Laranja (Citrus Rust)
• Price Volatility Risks:
  • Uncertainty in gasoline prices affecting ethanol demand
• Enabling Environment Risks:
  • Inadequate infrastructure and limited access to information

2. Fruticulture Sector

• Production Risks:
  • Irregular rainfall
  • Pests and diseases
• Price Volatility Risks:
  • Inter-annual price variations
• Enabling Environment Risks:
  • Inappropriate pesticide use due to lack of technical knowledge

3. Family Agriculture in the Semi-arid Zone

• Production Risks:
  • Drought and climate variability
• Price Volatility Risks:
  • Fluctuations in commodity prices
• Enabling Environment Risks:
  • Limited access to water and sanitation
  • Weak institutional support and lack of technical assistance

4. Livestock Production Chains

• Production Risks:
  • Drought
  • Exotic diseases (e.g., Foot and Mouth Disease, Classical Swine Fever)
• Enabling Environment Risks:
  • Insufficient veterinary services
  • Weak supply chain coordination

Adverse Impacts of Risks

• Indicative loss values show that the main crops (sugar cane, pineapple, banana, coconut, cassava, maize, beans) account for 80% of the total agricultural gross output value and 84% of annual losses.
• Cassava production volatility is used as a case study to illustrate the impact of climate variability on output.
• Vulnerable hotspots are identified, particularly in the semi-arid regions and among smallholder farmers.

Stakeholder Assessment

• Risk impact varies across stakeholders, with farmers, traders, and processors being most affected.
• Vulnerable groups include:
  • Low-income households
  • Women with low education levels
  • Households with children under 15
  • Those with inadequate access to water and sanitation

Risk Prioritization and Management Measures

• Risk prioritization highlights:
  • High-impact, medium-probability risks (e.g., drought, disease outbreaks)
  • Medium-impact, high-probability risks (e.g., irregular rainfall, price fluctuations)
• Proposed solutions include:
  • Agroclimatic Risk Information System (ACIS)
  • Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) systems
  • Improved access to insurance and risk premium subsidies
  • Enhanced technical assistance and extension services
  • Strengthening supply chain coordination
  • Promoting agricultural innovation systems

Risk Management Strategy and Action Plan

• Framework development includes:

  • Analysis of current institutional programs (e.g., Garantia Safra, PROAGRO)
  • Identification of gaps in risk management coverage
  • Integration of multi-stakeholder input to ensure comprehensive and practical measures

• Proposed instruments for risk management:

  • Insurance schemes for family agriculture and livestock
  • Price stabilization mechanisms
  • Improved weather forecasting and early warning systems
  • Capacity building for farmers and extension agents
  • Support for sustainable practices in semi-arid zones

• Next steps include:

  • Implementation of the proposed ARM strategy
  • Enhanced coordination between public and private actors
  • Improved data collection and monitoring systems

Key Institutions and Programs

• Government Agencies:
  • SEDAP (State Secretariat for Agriculture, Livestock and Aquiculture Development)
  • EMATER-PB (State Company for Technical Assistance and Rural Extension)
  • AGEVISA (State Agency for Sanitary Surveillance)
  • ANA (National Water Agency)
  • SUSEP (Superintendência of Private Insurance)
• Federal Programs:
  • Garantia Safra
  • PROAGRO
  • PRONAF
  • Direct Purchase from Family Agriculture (CDAF)
  • Risk Premium for Product Acquisition (PROP)

Conclusion

The study emphasizes the vulnerability of Paraíba’s agricultural sector, particularly in the semi-arid regions, and the need for a coordinated risk management strategy to address climate, production, and market-related risks. It underscores the importance of institutional support, technical assistance, and innovation in improving resilience and ensuring sustainable development in the agricultural sector.