中国半导体设备月度进口分析_18页_2mb

China Semi Equipment Import Analysis Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of China's semiconductor production equipment (SPE) import trends in November 2025, along with the broader context of the year-to-date (YTD) and quarterly data. It also outlines the key risks and valuation methodologies for Chinese WFE (Wafer Fabrication Equipment) companies, particularly AMEC, NAURA, and ACMR.

Key Highlights

• Total SPE Imports:

  • November 2025: US$2.129 billion, down 29% MoM and 10% YoY.
  • Year-to-Date (11M25): US$30.526 billion, up 5% YoY.
  • 11M25 Average: US$2.775 billion, slightly down from the 2024 average of US$2.793 billion.

• Lithography (Litho) Imports:

  • November 2025: US$707 million, down 32% YoY and 32% MoM.
  • Mix of Litho: Accounted for 33% of total imports, which is significantly higher than the normal range of 20-25%.
  • Litho Imports from Netherlands: US$3.2 billion in Shanghai, US$0.8 billion in Beijing, and US$1.7 billion in Guangdong, with Shanghai alone representing 67% of total SPE imports in the period.
  • Litho Imports by Major Fabs: Shanghai's litho imports were driven by SMIC, Huahong, HLMC, CXMT, ICRD, and GTA Semi.

• Non-Litho Imports:

  • November 2025: US$1.421 billion, up 8% YoY.
  • YTD 11M25: US$22.194 billion, up 13% YoY.
  • Mix of Non-Litho: Accounted for 67% of total imports, up from 65% in the same period last year.

• Etch Imports:

  • November 2025: US$428 million, down 32% YoY.
  • YTD 11M25: US$7.048 billion, up 35% YoY.
  • Etch Imports by Country: Japan (33%) and Malaysia (36%) were the top contributors, with Malaysia outperforming Japan for the fourth consecutive month.

• Deposition Imports:

  • November 2025: US$414 million, up 8% YoY.
  • YTD 11M25: US$7.650 billion, up 13% YoY.
  • Deposition Imports by Country: Japan and Austria were the main contributors, with Japan accounting for 62% of other imports.

• Exporting Countries:

  • Japan: 28% of total imports, down 25% YoY.
  • Netherlands: 29% of total imports, down 10% YoY.
  • US: 4% of total imports, down 52% YoY.
  • Singapore: 12% of total imports, up 21% YoY.
  • Malaysia: 9% of total imports, up 6% YoY.

Regional and Provincial Breakdown

• Shanghai:

  • November 2025: US$902 million, up 179% YoY.
  • Litho Imports: US$494 million, up 364% YoY.
  • Litho Mix: 80% of its total SPE imports.
  • YTD 11M25: US$9.43 billion, up 38% YoY.
  • Contribution to Total Imports: 42% of total SPE imports.

• Beijing:

  • November 2025: US$525 million, up 41% YoY.
  • Litho Imports: US$123 million, up 100% YoY.
  • YTD 11M25: US$2.953 billion, up 8% YoY.
  • Contribution to Total Imports: 25% of total SPE imports.

• Guangdong:

  • November 2025: US$248 million, down 30% YoY.
  • Litho Imports: US$1.714 billion, up 60% YoY.
  • YTD 11M25: US$8.311 billion, up 60% YoY.
  • Contribution to Total Imports: 12% of total SPE imports.

WFE Demand and Future Outlook

• WFE Demand in China:

  • Expected to grow by 10% in 2026 and 1% in 2027, following 8% growth in 2025.
  • The growth is driven by advanced logic and memory capacity expansion projects.

• Litho Demand Forecast:

  • Litho imports in the last three months reached US$2.0 billion, suggesting a potential US$8 billion non-litho WFE demand in the upcoming months, assuming litho represents 20% of total WFE.

Equity Ratings and Investment Views

• Equity Ratings:

  • NAURA: Key Call Buy
  • AMEC: Buy
  • ACMR Shanghai: Buy

• Valuation Methodology:

  • UBS uses the P/BV (Price to Book Value) methodology for valuing AMEC, NAURA, and ACMR.

• Downside Risks:

  • Worse-than-expected macroeconomic conditions and end-demand.
  • Geopolitical tensions intensifying and restrictions being extended.
  • Longer-than-expected downcycle.
  • China's fabs suspending projects and lowering capex more than expected.
  • Slower-than-expected R&D progress.

• Upside Risks:

  • End-demand recovering faster than expected.
  • Geopolitical tensions easing and restrictions being lifted.
  • Shorter-than-expected downcycle.
  • More aggressive capex plans by China's fabs.
  • Technological breakthroughs by Chinese WFE vendors.

Key Definitions and Rating Framework

• Forecast Stock Return (FSR):

  • Defined as expected percentage price appreciation plus gross.

• 12-Month Rating Definitions:

  • Buy: FSR > 6% above the MRA (Market Reference Appreciation).
  • Neutral: FSR between -6% and 6% of the MRA.
  • Sell: FSR < 6% below the MRA.

• Rating Coverage:

  • Buy: 51% of global coverage.
  • Neutral: 41% of global coverage.
  • Sell: 8% of global coverage.

• Short-Term Rating:

  • Buy/Sell: Based on specific catalysts or events affecting the stock price within three months.

Analyst Information

• Jimmy Yu: Analyst, UBS Securities
• Nicolas Gaudois: Analyst, UBS Securities
• Timothy Arcuri: Analyst, UBS Securities
• Yongwei Lai: Analyst, UBS Securities
• Francois-Xavier Bouvignies: Analyst, UBS Securities
• Kenji Yasui: Analyst, UBS Securities
• Randy Abrams: Analyst, UBS Securities
• Sunny Lin: Analyst, UBS Securities
• Xinlei Li: Analyst, UBS Securities
• Qing Luo: Associate, UBS Securities

Risk Statement

• Downside Risks:

  • Geopolitical tensions and extended restrictions.
  • Weaker-than-expected WFE demand.
  • Market share losses due to intensified competition.
  • Delays in new product development.
  • Departures of key management or R&D personnel.

• Upside Risks:

  • Easing geopolitical tensions and lifting restrictions.
  • Aggressive capex plans by domestic fabs.
  • Higher-than-expected market share gains.
  • Technological breakthroughs in key applications.

Required Disclosures

• This report is prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limited, an affiliate of UBS AG.
• UBS provides conflict of interest management and independence in its research.
• Information is based on company disclosures, including annual, interim, and quarterly reports.
• Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
• Quantitative Research Review is available for further insights.
• For third-party data and research terms, visit the UBS disclosures page.

Summary of Key Figures

Key Takeaways

• Shanghai and Beijing showed the strongest SPE import demand, with Shanghai contributing 67% of total imports.
• Litho demand remains elevated, indicating sustained expansion in advanced manufacturing.
• Non-Litho imports grew significantly, with Japan and Austria being the main suppliers.
• Geopolitical tensions and market share competition are key risks for WFE companies.
• WFE spending in China is expected to grow in 2026, driven by expansion projects.