新冠病毒疫情对全球航空旅行行业初步影响报告-IATA-2020.2-14页_338kb

COVID-19: Initial Impact Assessment on Aviation

Core Content Overview

This document provides an initial assessment of the impact of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) on the aviation industry, particularly focusing on the Asia-Pacific region. It compares the current situation to past disease outbreaks, such as SARS, and highlights the potential economic consequences for airlines in terms of Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPKs) and passenger revenues.

Key Findings and Analysis

1. Impact of Previous Outbreaks on Aviation

• Past disease outbreaks have typically peaked within 1–3 months and recovered to pre-outbreak levels within 6–7 months.
• The SARS outbreak in 2003 caused a significant annual decline in Asia-Pacific traffic, which was the only such decline in nearly two decades.

2. Comparison to SARS: China's Economic Growth

• The SARS experience may underestimate the current impact of COVID-19, as China's economic size has grown substantially since 2003.
• China's share in the global economy has increased, meaning the impact on the aviation sector is potentially greater than during SARS.

3. Regional Exposure to Chinese Markets

• Asia-Pacific airlines are most exposed to the Chinese market, which is a critical source of RPKs.
• If the impact of COVID-19 extends beyond China, other regions may also be affected, though the current analysis assumes only direct exposure to Chinese markets.

4. Passenger Traffic Decline in China

• January 2020 data showed a sharper decline in passenger numbers than during the SARS outbreak in the first month after the outbreak.
• February 2020 data indicated a further decline, with domestic and international passenger numbers in China down by approximately 60% compared to the same period in 2019.

5. Projected Impact on RPKs and Revenues

• If the impact of COVID-19 follows a "SARS-shaped" profile, the Asia-Pacific region would experience a 13% loss in RPKs for 2020.
• Industry-wide RPKs would decline by 4.7%, resulting in an estimated $29.3 billion loss in passenger revenues.
• The China domestic market accounts for 12.8 billion USD of this loss.

6. Forecast Adjustments

• The December 2019 forecast for RPK growth was 4.1% globally.
• Under the "SARS-shaped" scenario, the adjusted forecast for 2020 RPK growth would be -0.6%.
• This forecast adjustment assumes no other changes, such as lower fuel prices or policy interventions, and only accounts for the direct impact of the crisis.

7. Fuel Price Offset Potential

• Lower fuel prices could potentially offset some of the losses from the pandemic.
• The document includes a chart showing Brent crude oil prices and futures curves, indicating the potential for fuel cost reductions to mitigate financial impacts.

Key Figures and Data

Scenario Notes

• The analysis assumes a "SARS-shaped" impact profile, with a peak in the first 1–3 months and recovery within 6–7 months.
• The 13% RPK loss in the Asia-Pacific region is based on the assumption that the pandemic will have similar effects to SARS, although the current outbreak is largely confined to mainland China.
• The revenue loss estimates are based on RPK declines and assume no change in yields.
• Regional impacts outside the Asia-Pacific are only based on direct exposure to China, without considering secondary or knock-on effects.
• The final column in the table is indicative, showing how the 2020 RPK growth forecasts could be affected if this scenario materializes.

Conclusion

The document emphasizes that the Asia-Pacific region is most vulnerable to the impact of the novel Coronavirus, particularly due to its strong reliance on the Chinese market. While the SARS-shaped scenario provides a baseline for estimating the potential loss, it is noted that the situation may evolve, and the actual impact could be more severe. The loss of RPKs and revenues is significant, with the China domestic market being a major contributor. Fuel price reductions may offer some relief, but the overall economic impact on the aviation industry is expected to be substantial.