20231207-冠通期货-沥青_做多裂解价差轻仓持有_3页_660kb

Report Summary for Asphalt Futures

• Trading Strategy: The report recommends a light long position on the asphalt-crack spread, involving buying asphalt futures and selling crude oil futures. This is based on anticipated price movements from the spread, with a warning that asphalt is unlikely to move independently of crude oil.

• Supply Side Analysis: Asphalt production output has declined, falling 11 percentage points to 36.8% and even lower than the same period last year. Downstream industries, such as road modification asphalt, show reduced factory activity, while waterproofing materials remain sluggish, though winter storage contracts may provide support.

• Demand Side Analysis: Government bond issuance, including a planned 100 trillion yuan release for disaster recovery, could boost asphalt demand for infrastructure projects. However, infrastructure investment growth has slowed, with highway construction investments declining month-on-month, potentially moderating demand.

• Market Conditions:

  • Futures: The 2403 contract for asphalt rose slightly to 3624 yuan/ton, with low levels relative to 5-day moving averages.
    -现货:In the Shandong region, spot prices remained steady at 3475 yuan/ton, with a positive basis, indicating relatively low futures prices relative to spot.

• Inventory Levels: Asphalt inventories are at low historical levels and increased slightly weekly, but remain supportive of prices if demand rises from government stimulus.

• Key Risk Factors: Investments in futures carry inherent market risks, as outlined in the accompanying disclaimer. Factors such as OPEC+ decisions and overall economic conditions could affect outcomes. The strategy requires careful monitoring, with emphasis on light positioning due to market uncertainties.