2023-02-09-IEA-2023年1月度油气数据审查（英）_20页_287kb

报告摘要

Monthly Oil & Gas Data Review Summary

January 2023

Key Findings:

Preliminary Oil Overview:

Global oil demand climbed by 1.7 mb/d in November to the second-highest monthly level of the year, marginally above pre-COVID levels. Growth was led by China, Japan, and India.
China's oil demand rebounded +1.0 mb/d month-on-month, contributing to nearly 1 mb/d of the global demand growth. Crude imports also surged to a 20-month high.
Global crude production fell by 599 kb/d in November to a four-month low, primarily driven by losses in Saudi Arabia (-489 kb/d) and Iraq (-286 kb/d).
Despite slightly tighter markets compared to October, global crude and product inventories increased by 29.8 million barrels in November. Overall, they remain 396 million barrels below the five-year average.
Saudi crude production reached a 5-month export low (7.28 mb/d).

Oil Highlights:

Chinese total product exports climbed to a 17-month high, largely driven by strong diesel exports.
Specific product demands:
- Gasoline demand fell below the five-year average.
- Diesel demand remained very high relative to the five-year range.
- Fuel oil and LPG demand were both above their respective five-year ranges.
- Jet fuel demand declined seasonally.

Key Takeaways (Oil):

Significant Chinese demand rebound and export increases.
Global crude supply pressure, particularly from major producers like Saudi Arabia.
Continued inventory undershoot relative to the five-year average, indicating potentially tighter market balances overall.

Preliminary Gas Overview:

Gas production fell slightly by 1.2 billion cubic meters in November, led by declines in Norway, the US, and Australia.
Total gas inventories decreased by 2.8 billion cubic meters, less than the usual seasonal draw.
EU+UK gas demand remained notably low (below five-year seasonal range) during November.
Despite demand being at seasonal lows, inventories remained relatively healthy at 93% fill rate by month's end.

Key Takeaways (Gas):

Regional decline in production and stock draw.
Europe maintaining elevated inventory levels (despite consumption being lower than average).
Continued pressure on European gas security narratives (given high import levels vs. uncertainty about Russian supply).

Additional Context: