20150915-USDA-Oil_Crops_Outlook_2015.9.15_12页_261kb

Oil Crops Outlook Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an outlook for U.S. and global oil crops for the 2015/16 marketing year, focusing on soybeans, peanuts, and other oilseed crops. It outlines production forecasts, supply and demand dynamics, and the impact of weather conditions and international competition on crop outcomes and prices.

Key Points on U.S. Soybean Outlook

• Production Forecast: The U.S. soybean production for 2015/16 is forecast at 3.935 billion bushels, up 19 million bushels from the previous month.
• Yield Outlook: The national average yield is forecast at 47.1 bushels per acre, up from 46.9 bushels.
• Beginning Stocks: Beginning stocks are forecast lower at 210 million bushels compared to 300 million bushels last month.
• Season-Ending Stocks: Season-ending stocks are expected to decrease by 20 million bushels to 450 million bushels.
• Export Sales: U.S. soybean export sales are forecast at 1.725 billion bushels, down from the 2014/15 level of 1.835 billion bushels.
• Export Commitments: As of September 3, export sales commitments are at 590 million bushels, 33% lower than a year earlier.
• China Demand: Sales to China are down by 267 million bushels compared to a year ago.
• Brazil Competition: Brazil is expected to surpass U.S. exports by 16% due to record old-crop inventories and a weak currency.
• Soybean Meal Prices: The forecast for 2015/16 soybean meal prices is $310-$350 per short ton, down from the 2014/15 average of $370.
• Domestic Consumption: Domestic consumption is expected to rise by 3% to 33.1 million short tons due to falling prices.
• Farm Price: The U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is forecast at $8.40-$9.90 per bushel, supported by earlier sales at higher prices.

U.S. Peanut Outlook

• Production Forecast: Peanut production for 2015/16 is forecast at 6.3 billion pounds, up from 5.21 billion pounds in 2014/15.
• Yield: National average yield is forecast at 3,996 pounds per acre, up from 3,932 pounds.
• Carryover Stocks: Carryover stocks for 2014/15 season-ending inventory are at 2.1 billion pounds, up from 1.86 billion pounds.
• Total Supply: With carryover and new production, total supply for 2015/16 may reach a record 8.5 billion pounds.
• Domestic Use: Domestic use is forecast to increase by 13% to 5.664 billion pounds.
• Exports: Exports are expected to exceed last year's by over 100 million pounds, reaching nearly 1.19 billion pounds.
• Ending Stocks: Season-ending stocks may rise to 2.843 billion pounds, surpassing the 2012/13 record of 2.77 billion pounds.
• Planting Area: Sown area for peanuts is down to 4.5 million hectares, the lowest in nearly 50 years.
• Crushing Demand: Peanut crushing is forecast to decline to a historically low 3.2 million tons due to reduced area planted.

Global Soybean Outlook

• Production Forecast: Global soybean production for 2015/16 is forecast at 319.6 million metric tons, down 437,000 metric tons from the previous month.
• Ukraine: Soybean production is expected to decrease by 700,000 tons to 4 million tons due to dryness and high temperatures. Exports are forecast to fall by 650,000 tons to 2.35 million tons.
• Canada: Production is forecast to drop by 250,000 tons to 5.95 million tons, the first year-to-year decline since 2007. Exports are expected to remain stable at 400,000 tons.

International Outlook

• EU Sunflowerseed Crop: The EU sunflowerseed crop is forecast at 7.9 million metric tons, down 200,000 tons from the previous month. France and Romania are primarily responsible for the yield reduction.
• Sunflowerseed Imports: EU sunflowerseed imports may not compensate for the supply loss due to high global stocks.
• Serbia and Moldova: Serbia's production is forecast to drop to 450,000 tons from 525,000 tons, and Moldova's crop may decline to 350,000 tons from 450,000 tons.
• Turkey Imports: Turkey's sunflowerseed imports are reduced by 150,000 tons to 400,000 tons due to supply constraints.

Canadian Canola Outlook

• Production Forecast: Canola production for 2015/16 is forecast at 13.3 million tons, up 300,000 tons from the previous month.
• Carryover Stocks: Season-ending canola stocks are expected to decrease by 1 million tons to 2.3 million tons.
• Domestic Crush: Domestic canola crush is forecast to increase by 200,000 tons to 7 million tons.
• Supply and Demand: Increased supply from higher production and carryover stocks is expected to support domestic crush.

Other Oil Crops

• Cottonseed Production: Forecast at 4.3 million short tons for 2015/16, up from 4.2 million short tons.
• Domestic Use: Domestic use is forecast to increase by 1.65 million short tons to 7.9 million short tons.
• Exports: Exports are expected to rise by 225,000 short tons to 2.5 million short tons.
• Ending Stocks: Season-ending stocks are forecast to decrease to 367 million short tons.
• Oilseed Prices: Prices received by U.S. farmers for various oilseeds are forecast to range from $8.40-$9.90 for soybeans to $27.5-$30.5 for soybean oil, with declines expected across most oilseed products due to increased supply and lower demand.

Key Tables Summary

• Table 1: Highlights U.S. soybean production, yield, and supply/demand figures.
• Table 2: Shows U.S. soybean meal supply and disappearance, with forecasted lower prices and higher consumption.
• Table 3: Details U.S. soybean oil supply and disappearance, indicating a downward trend in prices.
• Table 4: Outlines U.S. cottonseed supply and disappearance, showing a modest increase in production and domestic use.
• Table 5: Covers U.S. peanut supply and disappearance, highlighting record production and lower exports.
• Table 6: Provides U.S. oilseed prices received by farmers, showing a decline in most oilseed prices.
• Table 7: Summarizes U.S. vegetable oil and fats prices, indicating a downward trend for most products.

Conclusion

The 2015/16 oil crops outlook shows a mix of increased production and supply for U.S. soybeans and peanuts, offset by lower beginning stocks and export challenges. Global soybean production is expected to decline due to adverse weather in Ukraine and Canada, while sunflowerseed production in the EU and other regions faces similar issues. The report emphasizes the importance of export markets and domestic demand in shaping the final supply and price outcomes for these crops.