20140114-USDA-Oil_Crops_Outlook_12页_262kb

报告摘要

Oil Crops Outlook Summary (OCS-14a)

Core Content

This report provides an outlook for U.S. and global oil crops for the 2013/14 marketing year, including production, exports, crush, and prices for soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, canola, sunflowerseed, flaxseed, peanuts, and cottonseed.

Main Points

U.S. Soybeans

Production Forecast: The 2013/14 U.S. soybean crop is estimated at 3.289 billion bushels on 75.9 million acres, up from 3.034 billion bushels in 2012/13.
Yield: The average yield is 43.3 bushels per acre, a significant increase from the 39.8 bushels per acre in 2012/13 due to moderate temperatures and an extended growing season.
Exports: U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.495 billion bushels, up by 20 million bushels from the previous forecast, driven by large outstanding sales commitments.
Crush: The U.S. soybean crush is forecast at 1.7 billion bushels, up by 10 million bushels, primarily due to strong soybean meal exports.
Prices: Season-average soybean prices are forecast at $11.75–$13.25 per bushel, down from $14.40 per bushel in 2012/13.
Stocks: Season-ending stocks are forecast at 150 million bushels, up from 141 million bushels in 2012/13.

U.S. Soybean Meal and Oil Exports

Soybean Meal Exports: Forecast at 10.7 million short tons, up from 10.5 million short tons in the previous month.
Soybean Oil Exports: Forecast at 1.45 billion pounds, up by 300 million pounds this month.
Prices: Soybean meal prices are expected to fall, with the average price in December reaching $498 per short ton, up from $451 per short ton in November, but likely to weaken in the spring.
Soybean Oil Prices: The December average price was 37.6 cents per pound, down from 47.2 cents per pound in the same period the previous year.

Global Soybean Outlook

Brazil: Production is forecast at 89 million metric tons, up from 88 million metric tons in the previous forecast and 82 million metric tons in 2012/13. The increase is due to a larger harvested area and higher supply.
Argentina: Production is forecast at 54.5 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate.
South America: A record soybean crop in South America may affect U.S. export competitiveness, especially if prices fall further.

Key Information

U.S. Canola

Production: Estimated at 2.2 billion pounds, down by 10 percent from the previous year due to reduced acreage.
Crush: Expected to rise to a record 3 billion pounds due to increased supply.
Oil Supplies: U.S. canola oil supplies are expected to increase by 800 million pounds to 4.9 billion pounds.
Prices: Canola prices dropped 30 percent in December to 19 cents per pound.

U.S. Sunflowerseed

Acreage: Planted acreage fell by 18 percent to 1.6 million acres, mainly due to wet soils in North Dakota.
Production: Output is expected to be 2.2 billion pounds, with a decline in oil-type sunflowerseed production.
Crush: Domestic crushing of oil-type sunflowerseed is forecast to fall by 10 percent to 900 million pounds.
Prices: Sunflowerseed prices were 21 percent below the previous year's level in December.

U.S. Flaxseed

Acreage: Sown acreage fell by 47 percent to 181,000 acres, the lowest since 1997.
Production: Output is forecast at 3.4 million bushels, down by 41 percent.
Imports: A record level of Canadian flaxseed imports is expected to offset the decline in domestic production.

U.S. Peanuts

Production: Estimated at 4.2 billion pounds, down by 38 percent from the previous year.
Exports: Forecast to decline due to lower production.
Stocks: Season-ending stocks are expected to fall to 2.292 billion pounds, compared to 2.771 billion pounds in 2012/13.

U.S. Cottonseed

Production: Estimated at 4.406 million short tons, down by 22 percent from the previous year.
Crush: Forecast at 2.2 million short tons, with a moderate reduction in exports.
Stocks: Season-ending stocks are expected to be 433,000 short tons.

Additional Notes

Export Competition: An imminent increase in South American soybean supply is expected to reduce U.S. soybean prices in the second half of the marketing year.
DDGs Impact: The availability of corn distillers' grains (DDGs) and their lower cost may reduce demand for soybean meal in feed rations.
China's DDGs Import Ban: China's halt on U.S. DDGs imports due to unapproved biotech corn may shift sourcing to South America.
Biodiesel Blending Credit: The lapse of the $1-per-gallon biodiesel blending credit has contributed to weaker soybean oil prices.
Ukraine's Sunflowerseed Crop: A massive crop in Ukraine is expected to increase global sunflowerseed supplies, potentially affecting prices and trade flows.

Data and Resources

Tables: Detailed production, use, imports, exports, and prices for oil crops are available in the Oil Crops Outlook report.
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