新冠疫情对航空业经济冲击的分析报告（英文版）_64页_3mb

Effects of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Civil Aviation: Economic Impact Analysis

Core Content Overview

This document provides a preliminary economic impact analysis of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak on civil aviation, focusing on scheduled international and domestic passenger traffic in China during the first quarter of 2020. It compares the actual impact to the originally-planned levels and includes scenario-based analysis for different levels of severity. The analysis also references past outbreaks, such as SARS, to contextualize the potential economic consequences.

Key Findings

• Impact on International Passenger Traffic: The outbreak led to a significant reduction in international passenger traffic, with estimates of 41–42% seat capacity reduction and 23.9–27.5 million passenger reduction in China.
• Revenue Losses: The estimated potential loss of gross operating revenues for airlines in China ranges from USD 5.8 to 6.7 billion.
• Scenario Analysis:
  • Scenario 1 (Mild): A 45% reduction in seat capacity and 41% reduction in passengers.
  • Scenario 2 (Severe): A 45% reduction in seat capacity and 47% reduction in passengers.
• Regional Analysis:
  • Traffic between mainland China and Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR, and Taiwan Province of China also saw substantial declines, with estimates ranging from 31–32% seat capacity reduction and 4.7–6.1 million passenger reduction.
  • Revenue losses in these regional segments are estimated between USD 1.1 to 1.5 billion.
• Comparative Impact with SARS: The impact of the current outbreak is expected to be greater than that of SARS in 2003, due to the larger scale of flight cancellations and a more developed aviation market in China.

Mainland China Scenario Analysis

Assumptions

• Baseline: Uses the originally-planned winter schedule and 2018 load factor data.
• Scenario 1: Based on airlines' schedule changes, with load factors unchanged from the baseline.
• Scenario 2: Based on schedule changes for January and February, with a summer schedule assumption for March. Load factors are reduced by 22 and 17 percentage points in February and March respectively.

Impact Summary

Hong Kong SAR and Macao SAR Scenario Analysis

Assumptions

• Baseline: Uses the originally-planned winter schedule and 2018 load factor data.
• Scenario 1: Based on schedule changes, with load factors unchanged from the baseline.
• Scenario 2: Based on schedule changes for January and February, with a summer schedule assumption for March. Load factors are reduced by 22 and 17 percentage points in February and March respectively.

Impact Summary

Summary of Scenario Analysis: China

Overall Impact

• Seat Capacity Reduction: 41–42% for international traffic, 40% for domestic traffic.
• Passenger Reduction: 23.9–27.5 million for international traffic, 66.6–76.3 million for domestic traffic.
• Revenue Loss: Approx. USD 5.8 to 6.7 billion for international traffic, USD 6.8 to 7.8 billion for domestic traffic.
• Grand Total: 41–42% seat capacity reduction, 41–47% passenger reduction, and USD 5.8 to 6.7 billion potential loss of gross operating revenues.

Key Notes

• The analysis excludes the impact of air cargo and other international services.
• The revenue losses are attributed to both Chinese and foreign carriers, with 55–85% of the reduction coming from Chinese carriers and Asia/Pacific carriers respectively.

Conclusion

The document highlights the severe economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the civil aviation sector in China, with significant reductions in both international and domestic passenger traffic. The analysis provides a detailed breakdown of the impact across different regions and carriers, emphasizing the scale and severity of the disruption compared to past outbreaks like SARS. The estimated revenue losses underscore the urgent need for policy responses and recovery strategies in the aviation industry.