2023-12-21-亚开行-亚洲发展展望报告（2023年12月版）_14页_801kb

Key Findings from Asian Development Outlook December 2023

• Growth Outlook: Developing Asia's economy grew robustly in 2023, driven by healthy domestic demand, strong remittances, and recovering tourism, with a forecast growth rate of 4.9% for 2023 and 4.8% for 2024. Risks include higher interest rates in advanced economies, weather shocks, and geopolitical tensions.

• Inflation Moderation: Inflation is decreasing, projected to fall from 4.4% in 2022 to 3.5% in 2023 and 3.6% in 2024. This has prompted central banks to pause monetary tightening or initiate easing in several regions.

• Demand and Economic Performance: Domestic consumption and investment remain strong contributors to GDP growth. Tourism arrivals and personal transfers are recovering toward pre-pandemic levels, supporting regional stability. However, manufacturing was hampered by weak external demand, while services continued to perform well.

• Monetary Policy and Financial Markets: Many economies have paused interest rate hikes due to easing inflation, with currencies stabilizing mostly or appreciating against the US dollar. Equity markets experienced volatility in September but rebounded in November amid expectations of no further rate increases.

• Global Context: Global growth slowed less than anticipated in 2023, with commodities like energy and food prices receding, reducing inflation pressures. Forecasts highlight that China and India are driving upward revisions for 2023 growth, but vulnerabilities include high debt levels and the ongoing US policy of "higher for longer" interest rates.

• Downside Risks: China's property market remains a concern, with declining investment and prices, potentially affecting domestic growth. Other risks include financial stability issues from prolonged high interest rates in advanced economies, climate-related disruptions (e.g., El Niño), and geopolitical uncertainties that could threaten food and energy security.

Overall, the report emphasizes a positive growth trajectory tempered by significant risks, underscoring the need for proactive policy responses in developing Asian economies.

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