亚开行-亚洲发展展望2018补充：展望保持稳定（英文）-2018.7-8页

报告摘要

Asian Development Outlook 2018 Supplement Summary

Core Content

The Asian Development Outlook 2018 Supplement provides an updated assessment of economic growth and inflation trends across various regions in Asia. It confirms that the overall growth outlook for Developing Asia remains stable at 6.0% for 2018 and 5.9% for 2019, with some subregions showing stronger performance. The newly industrialized economies (NIEs) are excluded from the subregional forecasts, which are revised to 6.5% for 2018 and 6.4% for 2019.

Main Points

Regional Growth Outlook

Developing Asia: Maintained at 6.0% (2018) and 5.9% (2019).
Central Asia: Growth forecast upgraded to 4.2% (2018) and 4.3% (2019).
East Asia: Growth maintained at 6.0% (2018) and 5.8% (2019).
South Asia: Expected to grow at 7.0% (2018) and 7.2% (2019), with India as the main driver.
Southeast Asia: Forecast at 5.2% for both 2018 and 2019, with Thailand and Viet Nam showing stronger performance.
The Pacific: Growth forecast remains at 2.2% for 2018 and is expected to rise to 3.0% for 2019.

Key Drivers of Growth

Domestic demand remains strong, particularly in private consumption and investment.
India benefits from bank-strengthening and new goods and services tax (GST).
Hong Kong, China and Taipei, China show upward revisions in growth forecasts due to strong Q1 performance.
China continues to grow at 6.6% (2018) and 6.4% (2019), supported by private consumption and real estate investment.
South Korea maintains growth at 3.0% (2018) and 2.9% (2019), driven by tourism and global demand.

Inflation Trends

Regional inflation is revised downward from 2.9% to 2.8% for both 2018 and 2019 due to domestic demand pressures.
Central banks in the region are taking measures to prevent currency depreciation and control inflation in response to US monetary policy normalization.

Trade and Protectionism

Trade tariffs implemented in 2018 have not significantly impacted trade flows.
Protectionist measures, especially from the US and China, pose a downside risk to developing Asia's growth.
The US-China trade conflict has led to tariff revisions and uncertainty in global markets.

Country-Specific Highlights

India: Expected to grow at 7.3% (2018) and 7.6% (2019), driven by government spending and export recovery.
Indonesia: Growth forecast revised down to 5.2% (2018) due to moderate export growth, while Philippines maintains 6.8% (2018) and 6.9% (2019).
Malaysia: Growth softened to 5.4% (2018) and 5.0% (2019) due to reduced public investment and slower external demand.
Thailand: Growth forecast upgraded to 4.2% (2018), with strong domestic demand and manufacturing expansion.
Viet Nam: Growth is expected at 7.1% (2018) and 6.8% (2019), supported by foreign investment and trade agreements.
Kazakhstan: Growth is revised up to 3.7% (2018) and 3.9% (2019) due to industrial recovery and policy reforms.
Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia show positive growth in Q1 2018, with tourism, exports, and capital investment as key contributors.
The Pacific: Growth remains 2.2% (2018), with Palau and Timor-Leste showing signs of recovery.

Risks and Challenges

Global trade tensions and rising protectionist measures could undermine consumer and business confidence.
Oil price increases may pose a downside risk to South Asian growth.
Fiscal austerity in some Pacific economies may reduce stimulus and slow growth.
Japan experienced a contraction in Q1 2018, leading to a revised growth forecast from 1.4% to 1.1% for 2018, with further moderation expected in 2019 due to consumption tax hikes.

Conclusion

Despite global economic uncertainties and trade tensions, the overall growth outlook for Developing Asia remains stable. Domestic demand continues to be a key driver, with Central Asia and South Asia performing stronger than anticipated. Inflation remains moderate, and central banks are active in managing monetary policy. Trade conflicts and external shocks remain downside risks, but the positive momentum in private consumption and investment supports sustained growth across the region.