亚开行-2025年亚洲发展展望（英）_24页_1mb

Asian Development Outlook July 2025 Summary

Key Findings and Growth Revisions

Growth Forecast Downgrade

• Asian developing economies’ 2025 and 2026 growth projections have been downgraded by 0.1–0.2 percentage points compared to April 2025 forecasts.
• 2025 Revised Growth Estimate: 4.7% (from 4.9%); 2026 Revised Growth Estimate: 4.6% (from 4.8%).
• Subregional Breakdown:
  • South Asia: Largest downward revision with projected growth at 4.2% (2025) and 4.3% (2026).
  • East Asia: East Asia growth revised to 4.3% (2025) and maintained at 4.0% (2026).
  • Southeast Asia: Growth lowered to 4.2% (2025) and 4.3% (2026).
  • Caucasus and Central Asia: Growth upgraded to 5.5% (2025) and 5.1% (2026) due to higher oil production in Kazakhstan.
  • The Pacific: Growth revised down to 3.5% (2026) from 3.6% (April forecast).

Main Drivers of Downturn

• US Tariffs and Trade Uncertainty: Higher-than-expected US tariffs dampen export momentum in Asia, with varying impacts across regions.
• Global Economic Slowdown: Weaker external demand, strained global trade, and policy uncertainty contribute to reduced growth prospects.
• Weak Domestic Demand: In several economies (e.g., Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, China), subdued household and investment spending weigh on growth.
• PRC Economic Challenges: Despite policy support, domestic demand constraints and front-loaded export gains may not be sustainable.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

• Disinflation Persists: Inflation in Asia averaged 1.9% by end-2024, revised to 2.0% (2025) and 2.1% (2026).
• Monetary Easing: Most regional central banks have lowered policy rates, but concerns over inflation and external shocks temper aggressive easing.
• Oil Prices: Remain volatile, averaging $71–78 per barrel in late 2025, but long-term trends point toward declining prices.

Risk Assessment

• Leading Downside Risks:
  • Renewed escalation of US–PRC trade tensions could reduce growth by 0.5–1.4 percentage points in South Asia.
  • Ongoing crisis in the PRC’s property sector.
  • Further oil supply disruptions from Middle East conflicts.
  • Contagion from global recessio
• Upward Risks: Ongoing reforms in countries like Viet Nam and Kazakhstan.

Key Charts and Tables

1. Subregional Growth Projections (Table 2):

   • Downward revisions across most subregions, with notable upgrades in Caucasus and Central Asia.

2. Tariff Scenarios (Box 4):

   • Reciprocal tariffs and trade tensions are projected to lower global growth by 0.8pp and reduce developing Asia’s growth by 0.4pp.

Country-Level Insights

• PRC: Growth remains stable at 5.0% (2025) and 4.7% (2026), supported by fiscal and monetary stimulus.
• India: Revisions driven by US tariffs; projected growth at 6.5% (2025).
• Japan: Growth slowed to 0.8% (2025); external demand and household consumption remain weak.

Macroeconomic Policy Responses

• Fiscal and Monetary Support: Governments have rolled out stimulus packages, while monetary authorities have eased policy to counter downturns.
• Infrastructure Investment: Public spending on infrastructure is expected to boost growth in several economies.

Conclusion and Outlook

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) projects that Asia’s growth outlook remains fragile despite earlier gains in Q1 2025. The region will face significant headwinds in 2025–2026 due to trade tensions, monetary policy uncertainty, and debt challenges. Key risks include a potential re-escalation of the US–China trade war and disruptions from geopolitical instability in the Middle East. The Pacific region and remittance-dependent economies are particularly vulnerable to these developments.