亚开行-亚洲发展展望（ADO）2023年4月（英）-317页_8mb
报告摘要
Summary of Asian Development Outlook April 2023
Core Content
The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2023 provides an economic forecast and analysis for developing Asia, highlighting both positive trends and ongoing challenges. The report forecasts 4.8% growth for developing Asia in 2023 and 2024, up from 4.2% in 2022, driven by the reopening of the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the recovery of regional economies from the impacts of the pandemic.
Main Views
- Economic Resilience: Many economies in developing Asia showed strong resilience during the pandemic, with improved consumption and investment as the pandemic receded.
- PRC Reopening: The end of the zero-COVID strategy in December 2022 significantly boosted regional growth through increased demand for goods and services, as well as trade and tourism.
- Regional Growth Variations: Growth in South Asia is expected to be faster than other regions, while the PRC and India are the main growth drivers. However, some countries like Pakistan and Sri Lanka face challenging outlooks.
- Inflation Trends: Headline inflation is expected to decrease to 4.2% in 2023 and 3.3% in 2024, gradually returning to pre-pandemic levels. Core inflation remains elevated in several economies, requiring close monitoring.
- Challenges Remain: Despite the positive outlook, the region faces risks from global financial instability, climate change, and geopolitical tensions, particularly from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Key Information
Economic Performance by Subregion
| Subregion | GDP Growth 2021 (%) | GDP Growth 2022 (%) | GDP Growth 2023 (%) | GDP Growth 2024 (%) | Inflation 2021 (%) | Inflation 2022 (%) | Inflation 2023 (%) | Inflation 2024 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developing Asia | 7.2 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 3.3 |
| Developing Asia excluding PRC | 6.1 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 4.5 |
| Caucasus and Central Asia | 5.8 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 9.0 | 12.9 | 10.3 | 7.5 |
| East Asia | 7.9 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| South Asia | 8.4 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 5.8 |
| Southeast Asia | 3.5 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 |
| The Pacific | -1.4 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 4.4 |
Key Highlights
- Tourism Recovery: Tourism is recovering, with visitor arrivals in some economies returning to pre-pandemic levels.
- Remittances: Money transfers and remittances remain robust, particularly in the Caucasus and Central Asia.
- Financial Conditions: Financial conditions improved in late 2022 but have stalled recently due to persistent inflation and banking sector turbulence in the US and Europe.
- Monetary Policy: Monetary policy tightening has slowed, and fiscal positions are improving in several economies.
- Challenges: The PRC's reopening poses an upside risk, but challenges such as higher debt, interest rates, commodity price volatility, and global fragmentation remain.
Conclusion
While developing Asia shows brighter prospects with growth projected to increase and inflation to stabilize, the region must remain vigilant against ongoing challenges. Regional cooperation, financial resilience, and addressing the long-term impacts of climate change and global geopolitical issues are critical for sustained development.
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