亚开行-2025年4月亚洲发展展望（英）-2025.4_322页_5mb

Asian Development Outlook April 2025 Summary

Core Content

The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2025 highlights the economic challenges and trends in Asia and the Pacific, emphasizing the impact of trade uncertainty and rising tariffs on regional growth and stability. The report, published by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), provides forecasts and analysis for the region's economic performance, inflation, and monetary policy.

Main Points

• Growth Outlook:

  • Regional growth in Asia and the Pacific is expected to moderate slightly in 2025 and 2026, from 5.0% in 2024 to 4.9% and 4.7% respectively.
  • The People's Republic of China (PRC) will experience a slowdown due to weak property sector performance and higher US tariffs, while South Asia will see stronger growth from robust domestic demand.
  • Excluding the PRC, growth is projected to remain stable at 5.0% in 2025 and 5.1% in 2026.
  • Southeast Asia and East Asia will face mixed performance, with Viet Nam and Taiwan showing resilience in electronics exports.

• Inflation Trends:

  • Inflation is expected to decline further, reaching 2.3% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, driven by lower global commodity prices and disinflationary pressures.
  • Food inflation will continue to moderate, despite a temporary spike in 2024 due to weather and supply disruptions.
  • The Pacific and Caucasus and Central Asia may face upward price pressures due to currency depreciation and increased public spending.

• Trade Uncertainty:

  • Rising trade tensions, especially with the United States, have created headwinds for the region.
  • The new US tariffs announced on 2 April will reduce growth in the PRC and other economies, with potential for retaliatory measures to worsen the effects.
  • Electronics exports remain a bright spot, supported by strong global demand and AI-related innovation.

• Regional Performance:

  • South Asia will see a slowdown in India due to public investment delays, but growth in Pakistan and Sri Lanka will partially offset this.
  • Southeast Asia will benefit from tourism recovery and continued exports.
  • Caucasus and Central Asia will maintain growth supported by domestic demand and remittances, though the realization of gains is uncertain.
  • The Pacific will face challenges due to Fiji's slowdown and geopolitical instability.

• Monetary Policy and Debt Management:

  • Monetary policy easing is expected to continue, though at a slower pace due to US policy uncertainty and higher interest rates.
  • Public debt ratios are stabilizing but remain a concern, especially in Lao PDR, Maldives, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.
  • Debt sustainability risks are highlighted, with the need for effective debt management to prevent liquidity shocks.

• Other Key Factors:

  • Tourism is recovering but remains below pre-pandemic levels, particularly due to fewer visitors from the PRC.
  • Remittances remain a steady income source, especially in Bangladesh, Fiji, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.
  • Geopolitical conflicts and tariff escalations could lead to supply chain disruptions, higher food and energy prices, and increased global economic uncertainty.

Key Information

• Forecasts were finalized before the announcement of new US tariffs on 2 April.
• GDP growth and inflation data for 2023–2026 are provided in a statistical appendix, showing varying trends across subregions.
• The report stresses the importance of regional cooperation to address shared vulnerabilities such as supply chain fragility, energy security, and climate-related risks.
• ADB emphasizes the need to enhance regional integration and strengthen institutions to ensure economic resilience and sustainable growth.

Conclusion

Despite trade uncertainty and tariff hikes, the Asia and the Pacific region remains resilient, with electronics exports and tourism recovery supporting growth. However, persistent risks such as debt sustainability, geopolitical tensions, and US policy uncertainty could impact the region's economic momentum and development goals. The report underscores the importance of policy coordination, debt management, and enhanced regional cooperation to navigate these challenges effectively.