2020年亚洲发展展望-亚开行-2020.4-392页_3mb

Summary of ASIAN DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK 2020

Core Content

The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2020 is a comprehensive report analyzing the economic outlook for developing Asia in the context of the Coronavirus Outbreak (COVID-19). It emphasizes the role of innovation in driving inclusive and sustainable growth and outlines the economic impacts of the pandemic across different subregions of Asia.

Main Points

• Economic Impact of the Pandemic:
  The outbreak has significantly disrupted economic activities across developing Asia, leading to a sharp slowdown in growth. The report forecasts:

  • Regional growth to decline from 5.2% in 2019 to 2.2% in 2020, then rebound to 6.2% in 2021.
  • Excluding high-income newly industrialized economies, growth will fall from 5.7% to 2.4% in 2020, then recover to 6.7% in 2021.
  • The global economic impact of the pandemic is estimated to range from $2.0 trillion to $4.1 trillion, equivalent to 2.3%–4.8% of global GDP.

• Key Drivers of Innovation:
  The report highlights five key factors that drive innovation in Asia:

  • Sound education systems
  • Innovative entrepreneurship
  • Conducive institutions
  • Deeper capital markets
  • Dynamic cities that integrate top universities and forward-thinking firms

  It stresses that no shortcuts exist to building an innovation society and that improving education is critical, as one in three 10-year-old Asians struggles with literacy.

• Regional Outlook:

  • East Asia: Growth is expected to drop from 5.4% in 2019 to 2.0% in 2020, then recover to 6.5% in 2021. The PRC is expected to experience a -4.6% GDP contraction in 2020, with a rebound to 7.3% in 2021. The ROK and Taipei, China will see a slowdown in 2020, followed by a recovery in 2021.
  • South Asia: Growth will slow from 5.1% in 2019 to 4.1% in 2020, then rise to 6.0% in 2021, largely following India’s performance. Bangladesh is expected to grow at 7.8% in 2020, while Maldives and Sri Lanka face significant tourism-related contractions.
  • Southeast Asia: Growth is projected to fall to 1.0% in 2020, with Thailand expected to contract by 4.8%. Vietnam will remain the most resilient economy in the subregion. Cambodia and Indonesia will also experience sharp slowdowns.
  • Central Asia: Growth is forecast to decline to 2.8% in 2020, primarily due to falling oil prices and reduced investment. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan will see slower growth due to oil export challenges.
  • The Pacific: Growth is expected to contract by 0.3% in 2020, with Fiji facing the steepest decline at -4.9%. Tourism-dependent economies will suffer the most.

• Inflation Trends:
  Regional inflation is projected to rise to 3.2% in 2020, driven by rising food prices, especially pork in the PRC and vegetables in India, before easing to 2.3% in 2021. Subregional inflation in the Pacific is expected to be 7.6% in 2020, with some economies experiencing deflation.

• Downside Risks:
  The report warns of severe downside risks due to the uncertainty of the pandemic’s spread and containment duration. Financial turmoil and long-term structural changes to the global economy are also possible.

• Policy Recommendations:
  The report calls for policy coordination and effective responses from governments and institutions to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic. It also emphasizes the importance of fostering innovation to ensure long-term sustainable growth.

Key Information

• The pandemic has disrupted global trade, tourism, and remittances, leading to a decline in economic activity across Asia.
• Developing Asia is expected to recover in 2021, but the speed and extent of recovery remain uncertain.
• Innovation is identified as a key factor for long-term growth and economic resilience.
• Education, entrepreneurship, institutions, financial markets, and cities are highlighted as drivers of innovation.
• Subregional forecasts are provided for Central Asia, East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific.
• Inflation is expected to rise in 2020 but ease in 2021.
• Global GDP loss estimates range from $2.0 trillion to $4.1 trillion, with developing Asia accounting for 22%–36% of the total.

Conclusion

The ADO 2020 underscores the economic vulnerability of developing Asia due to the pandemic and highlights the urgent need for policy coordination, stimulus measures, and investment in innovation to ensure recovery and long-term growth. It serves as a guide for policy makers to navigate the challenges of the current crisis and to build a more resilient and innovative Asia.