20240830-建信期货-宏观市场月报_美联储降息时点渐行渐近_15页_1mb

标准“Use 中英文总结”

中文总结部分 (approx. 496 characters)

2024年中国经济外需强、内需弱，受房地产疲软与地缘政治风险抑制，股市跌幅显著，国债利率曲线陡峭下行。美国方面，就业通胀韧性减弱，美联储9月降息概率高，有望提振股市与工业商品。研究建议超配股票、原油，标配利率债与黄金，低配信用债与货币。

English Summary

The Chinese economy in 2024 shows resilience in external demand but weakness internally due to a persistent real estate slump and risk aversion. This has led to a sharp decline in the stock market and a steep inversion of the government bond yield curve. Meanwhile, the U.S. economic data suggests a weakening in employment and inflation, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, which is expected to boost stock markets and industrial commodities. We advise overweight positioning in stocks and crude oil, neutral in government bonds and gold, and underweight in credit bonds and money market instruments.