20230709-华创证券-债券周报_理财配债放量_4月再现__25页_3mb

The July 9, 2023, bond research report highlights that July may resemble April in terms of bank wealth management (WML) activity, with potential scale growth and increased bond allocation. WML funds, driven by seasonal factors and marketing efforts post-quarter end, typically boost bond purchases, favoring short-term instruments like interbank CDs, short-term perpetual bonds (二永债), and high-grade credit varieties due to size and liquidity concerns. Specific analysis shows WML has strong pricing influence on 1-year or less Eternity and Permanent Bonds, leading to compressed spreads, particularly in 3-month maturities for high-grade national banks. For CDs, yields are expected to trend lower with WML inflow, but gains may be limited due to existing price-to-funding gaps. The bond market strategy suggests waiting for "wide credit" policy developments, then configuring high when 10-year Treasury yields rise to around 2.75%, while continuing to explore coupon opportunities in short-term bonds due to "money plenty" dynamics. Key data to monitor next week includes inflation, financial, and import-export indicators. Risks include unexpected liquidity tightening or faster credit easing than anticipated.