德银-欧洲-钢铁市场-钢材价格追踪：美国钢铁价格下跌，欧洲价格稳定-20171017-Deutsche_Bank-Steel_Price_Tracker：Falling_US_scrap_price_drags_US_steel_prices，Europe_stable_22页_1mb
报告摘要
Steel Market Summary - October 2017
Core Content
This document provides an analysis of the steel market conditions and valuations in Europe and the US, with insights into steel prices, raw material costs, and company-specific data for ArcelorMittal and Voestalpine. It also highlights the performance of various steel products and the outlook for the steel industry.
Main Steel Price Trends
Hot Rolled Coil (HRC)
- Northern Europe: Prices increased by E1 to E542 (up USD4 to USD640), with a 3-month increase of E49.
- Southern Europe: Prices increased by E3 to E516 (up USD1 to USD610), with a 3-month increase of E83.
- Turkey: Prices increased by E13 to E522 (up USD13 to USD612), with a 3-month increase of E69.
- USA: Prices decreased by USD15 to USD610, narrowing the price gap with Europe to USD20/t and widening the gap with China to USD110/t.
- Chinese Exports: Prices remained stable at USD550, with a 3-month increase of E31 (up USD49).
Cold Reduced Coil (CRC)
- Northern Europe: Prices increased by E1 to E629 (up USD2 to USD742), with a 3-month increase of E34.
- Southern Europe: Prices increased by E1 to E598 (up USD1 to USD706), with a 3-month increase of E77.
- Turkey: Prices increased by E1 to E615 (up USD1 to USD727), with a 3-month increase of E102.
- USA: Prices decreased by USD36 to USD730, with a 3-month decrease of USD30.
Hot Dipped Galvanised Coil (HDG)
- Northern Europe: Prices increased by E1 to E672 (up USD5 to USD793), with a 3-month decrease of USD20.
- Southern Europe: Prices decreased by E1 to E624 (down USD1 to USD736), with a 3-month decrease of USD31.
- USA: Prices decreased by USD26 to USD830, with a 3-month decrease of USD30.
Plate
- Northern Europe: Prices decreased by E5 to E589 (down USD2 to USD695), with a 3-month decrease of E58.
- Southern Europe: Prices increased by E3 to E565 (up USD6 to USD667), with a 3-month increase of E65.
- USA: Prices increased by USD9 to USD643, with a 3-month increase of USD28.
Rebar
- Northern Europe: Prices increased by E6 to E538, with a 3-month increase of E159.
- Southern Europe: Prices increased by E3 to E463, with a 3-month increase of E70.
- USA: Prices decreased by USD6 to USD523, with a 3-month decrease of USD38.
Raw Material Prices
Iron Ore
- Fines 62% Fe: Prices increased by USD3/dmt to USD62/dmt, with a 3-month increase of USD4.
- Fines 58% Fe: Prices decreased by USD5/dmt to USD47/dmt, with a 3-month decrease of USD2.
Coking Coal
- Premium Coking Coal (Australian Exports): Prices decreased by USD1/t to USD182/t, with a 3-month decrease of USD4.
Scrap
- European Scrap: Prices increased by USD15/t to USD295/t, with a 3-month increase of USD12.
- Turkish Scrap: Prices increased by USD13/t to USD312/t, with a 3-month increase of USD13.
- US Scrap: Prices decreased by USD30/t to USD238/t, with a 3-month decrease of USD10.
Key Industry Insights
- Steel Price Volatility: Steel equities continue to be volatile, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and commodity price movements.
- European Stability: Despite the falling US scrap prices, European steel prices remain relatively stable, indicating a more resilient market.
- Cost Support Fade: The forecast suggests that cost support may fade, leading to potential price declines in Europe.
- Earnings Potential: Current spot conditions suggest further earnings upgrades across the steel industry, but the risk of falling prices remains.
Top Picks
- ArcelorMittal (MT.AS): Valued using a blend of forward EBITDA and DCF, with a target price of EUR28 and a current price of EUR24.63.
- Voestalpine (VOES.VI): Valued using DCF, with a target price of EUR50 and a current price of EUR45.60.
Key Risks
- Macroeconomic Downturns
- Lower-than-expected steel prices
- Higher raw material and operating costs
- Political influence in steel trade
- Project execution risks
- M&A and integration challenges
- Currency fluctuations
Company Profile: Voestalpine
- Industry: Steel production, processing, and distribution.
- Key Markets: Automotive, household appliances, rail, and oil and gas.
- Financial Highlights:
- Sales Revenue: EUR12,640m (2018E)
- EBITDA: EUR2,074m (2018E)
- Net Profit: EUR853m (2018E)
- FCF Yield: 8.3% (2018E)
- Dividend Yield: 3.1%
- EV/EBITDA: 5.3x (2018E)
Valuation Metrics (Voestalpine)
| Metric | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018E | 2019E | 2020E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (DB) | 11.5 | 11.7 | 11.5 | 11.4 | 10.2 | 9.4 |
| P/E (Reported) | 10.6 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 11.6 | 10.3 | 9.4 |
| P/BV | 1.31 | 1.03 | 1.20 | 1.34 | 1.22 | 1.10 |
| FCF Yield (%) | 1.6 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 4.1 | 13.3 | 8.3 |
| EV/Sales | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 5.3 |
Summary of Price Changes
| Product Category | Price Change (USD) | Price Change (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| HRC | -15 | -15 |
| CRC | -36 | -11 |
| HDG | -26 | -15 |
| Plate | -28 | -15 |
| Rebar | -26 | -15 |
| Scrap | -30 | -15 |
Key Figures and Sources
- Steel Price Tracker: 17 October 2017
- Sources: Deutsche Bank, The Steel Index, Bloomberg Finance LP
- Figures: Multiple figures are included to illustrate price trends and valuation metrics, though they are not described in detail here.
Conclusion
The steel market in Europe remains relatively stable compared to the declining US prices, influenced by strong cash flow and valuations. While there are risks of falling prices and cost pressures, the document suggests that ArcelorMittal and Voestalpine are attractive investments due to their strong fundamentals and growth potential.
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