德银-全球-钢材市场-钢材价格追踪：西部市场价格持续上涨；煤价下跌-20180125-22页_1mb

报告摘要

Steel Market Summary - January 25, 2018

Core Content

The document provides an overview of the steel market dynamics in Europe, the US, and China, along with insights into steel equities, pricing trends, and valuation analysis.

Key Market Price Trends

Hot Rolled Coil (HRC):
- Northern Europe: Prices increased by E7 to E548 (USD21 to USD671). Prices rose E16 over three months.
- Southern Europe: Prices increased by E4 to E528 (USD16 to USD646). Prices rose E16 over three months.
- Turkey: Prices decreased by USD9 to USD365/t. If prices remain stable, a QoQ increase of USD36 is expected.
- USA: Prices increased by USD28 to USD763. Prices rose USD94 over three months.
- Chinese Exports: Prices decreased by USD4 to USD568. Prices dropped USD17 over three months.
Cold Reduced Coil (CRC):
- Northern Europe: Prices increased by USD26 to USD770. Prices rose USD35 over one month.
- Southern Europe: Prices increased by USD18 to USD770. Prices rose USD80 over three months.
- Turkey: Prices decreased by USD9 to USD710. A QoQ increase of USD32 is expected if prices remain stable.
- USA: Prices increased by USD5 to USD937. Prices rose USD50 over one month.
- Chinese Exports: Prices decreased by USD1 to USD615. Prices dropped USD25 over three months.
Hot Dipped Galvanised Coil (HDG):
- Northern Europe: Prices increased by USD20 to USD819. Prices rose USD52 over one month.
- Southern Europe: Prices increased by USD18 to USD782. Prices rose USD69 over three months.
- USA: Prices increased by USD3 to USD1,008. Prices rose USD55 over three months.
Plate:
- Northern Europe: Prices increased by USD27 to USD727. Prices rose USD36 over one month.
- Southern Europe: Prices increased by USD20 to USD681. Prices rose USD25 over one month.
- USA: Prices increased by USD28 to USD851. Prices rose USD176 over three months.
Rebar:
- Northern Europe: Prices increased by USD17 to USD692. Prices rose USD39 over three months.
- USA: Prices increased by USD28 to USD645. Prices remained stable over three months.
Iron Ore:
- Fines 62% Fe: Prices decreased by USD1 to USD75/dmt.
- Fines 58% Fe: Prices decreased by USD1 to USD60/dmt.
- Coking Coal: Prices decreased by USD18 to USD221. Prices dropped E15 to E181.
Scrap:
- Europe: Prices decreased by USD13 to USD345/t.
- Turkey: Prices decreased by USD9 to USD365/t.
- US: Prices decreased by USD31 to USD335/t.

Key Companies and Valuation

ArcelorMittal (MT.AS):
- Current Price: EUR30.10
- Target Price: EUR36.00
- FCF Yield: 9-11%
- Valuation: Based on a blend of forward EBITDA (6.0x 2018E) and DCF (7.9% WACC, 2% terminal growth).
- Risks: Weaker steel prices, demand divergence, higher raw material costs, FX rates, and project execution risks.
Voestalpine (VOES.VI):
- Current Price: EUR54.60
- Target Price: EUR57.00
- FCF Yield: 8-9%
- Valuation: DCF (7.7% WACC, 1% terminal growth).
- Risks: Lower steel prices/demand, higher raw material costs, legal and execution risks.

Industry Valuation and Risks

Valuation Methods: DCF, normalised earnings, and sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis.
Key Risks:
- Global economic growth not meeting expectations.
- Lower-than-expected steel prices and demand.
- Higher raw material costs.
- Political influence in steel trade.
- Project development and M&A risks.
- FX rate fluctuations.

Price Announcements

Flats:
- Tokyo Steel Manufacturing (Japan): Increased flat product prices by Yen 1,000/mt for February contracts.
- CSN (Brazil): Raised flat steel prices by 12% in early 2018.
- SSAB (US): Increased US plate prices by USD50/st.
- ArcelorMittal (US): Raised US plate prices by USD50/st.
Longs:
- Jiangsu Shagang (China): Decreased rebar prices by Yuan 300/mt for January 21-30.
- Gerdua Long Steel (US): Raised rebar prices by USD40/st in Florida and C$50/st in Canada.
- Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corp (Japan): Raised H-beam prices by Yen 3,000/mt for January contracts.
- ArcelorMittal USA (US): Raised wire rod prices by USD45/st.
Stainless:
- Outokumpu (Finland): Raised February adjustment factor for type 304 flat products by EUR11/mt.
- Nippon Steel & Sumikin Stainless (Japan): Raised domestic stainless prices by Yen 10,000/mt for December contracts.
- Aperam (Luxembourg): Raised December surcharge for type 316 flat products by EUR125/mt.
- Nissin Steel (Japan): Raised austenitic CRC prices by Yen 20,000/mt for November contracts.

Financial Metrics (ArcelorMittal)

Financial Summary (USDm):
- Sales Revenue: 79,283 (2017E), 75,044 (2018E)
- EBITDA: 7,237 (2017E), 9,878 (2018E)
- EBIT: 3,004 (2017E), 6,907 (2018E)
- Net Profit: -1,176 (2017E), 4,612 (2018E)
Valuation Metrics:
- P/E (DB): 16.2 (2016), 10.1 (2018E)
- P/BV: 0.70 (2016), 0.89 (2018E)
- FCF Yield: 1.7 (2016), 11.5 (2018E)
- Dividend Yield: 0.8 (2017E), 2.7 (2018E)
- EV/EBITDA: 5.9 (2016), 4.7 (2018E)
Balance Sheet (USDm):
- Total Assets: 99,179 (2016), 86,678 (2018E)
- Interest Bearing Debt: 19,797 (2016), 12,766 (2018E)
- Net Debt: 15,781 (2016), 3,323 (2018E)
- Shareholders' Equity: 45,160 (2016), 44,508 (2018E)

Contact Information

Bastian Synagowitz:
Research Analyst
+41-44-227-3377
bastian.synagowitz@db.com
Deutsche Bank Steel & Mining Team:
Bastian Synagowitz, Liam Fitzpatrick, Patrick Jones, Robin Draeger
Email: bastian.synagowitz@db.com, liam.fitzpatrick@db.com, patrick.jones1@db.com, robin.draeger@db.com
USA Team:
Chris Terry, Jeremy Kliewer, Sathish Kasinathan
Email: chris.terry@db.com, jeremy.kliewer@db.com, sathish.kasinathan@db.com
China and Japan Team:
James Kan, Sanghi Han
Email: james.kan@db.com, sanghi.han@db.com
India Team:
Abhay Laijawala
Email: abhay.laijawala@db.com
Australia Team:
Paul Young, Matthew Frydman
Email: paul-d.young@db.com, matthew.frydman@db.com