2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Argentina_Second_Review_under_the_Stand_78页_2mb

Argentina: Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement

Core Content

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the second review under Argentina's 36-month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), approved in June 2018, on December 19, 2018. This review allowed for a disbursement of US$7.6 billion, bringing total purchases since June to US$28.09 billion. The Executive Board also approved the modification of performance criteria requested by the authorities.

Main Points

• Monetary Policy and Inflation:

  • The shift to zero growth in base money has tightened monetary conditions, leading to a stabilization of the peso.
  • The peso appreciated by 15% in October due to higher interest rates but then depreciated in November and appreciated again in early December.
  • Core inflation declined from 7.6% m/m in September to 4.5% in October, and the average 12-month ahead expected inflation fell to 29% in November.
  • Inflation is expected to drop from ~47% in 2018 to ~20% by the end of 2019.

• Economic Activity and Outlook:

  • Economic activity contracted by 0.4% in Q3 and fell by nearly 2% in September, with all sectors declining or slowing.
  • The economy is expected to start recovering in Q2 2019, with agricultural production rebounding and exports increasing.
  • The economy is projected to contract by 1.75% in 2019 but grow in 2020 and beyond.

• Fiscal Performance:

  • The federal primary deficit in October 2018 was 1.4% of GDP, below the program target.
  • The 2019 primary balance target remains feasible, with a projected 2.7% of GDP adjustment through higher revenues and lower transfers, subsidies, and current spending.
  • The 2019 budget includes a 34% annual wage increase, which will require capping the next wage increase to 25% to meet fiscal targets.

• Debt Management:

  • The BCRA has almost eliminated the outstanding stock of LEBACs, with AR$120 billion rolled off in the November auction.
  • The authorities have reduced the need for short-term FX borrowing and improved the management of public debt.

• Structural Reforms:

  • The 2019 budget includes measures to improve the tax system, including a wealth tax and a minimum non-taxable threshold for residential property.
  • The authorities are working on structural reforms to improve the fiscal framework, enhance debt management, and promote growth, including pension system reform and labor market regulations.

• Social Safety Net and Vulnerability:

  • The government has implemented measures to support the most vulnerable, such as increasing social transfers and expanding coverage of social programs.
  • Efforts are also being made to improve the efficiency of social spending and to increase the inclusiveness of the social safety net.

• Challenges and Risks:

  • Downside risks include global financial tightening, inflation inertia, a deeper recession, or more persistent inflation, which could hinder policy implementation.
  • Uncertainty around the 2019 electoral cycle may lead to market turbulence.
  • Continued fiscal discipline and clear communication are essential to sustain public and market confidence.

Key Information

• IMF Disbursement: US$7.6 billion approved, bringing total purchases since June 2018 to US$28.09 billion.
• Monetary Policy: Zero growth in base money and a market-determined exchange rate are central to the monetary framework.
• Fiscal Targets: The primary deficit for 2018 is expected to be at or slightly below the 2.7% of GDP target.
• Structural Reforms: The 2019 budget includes provisions for tax reforms, pension system reform, and labor market improvements.
• Social Programs: Additional one-off payments and expanded coverage of social programs aim to reduce the impact of the economic downturn on vulnerable groups.
• Debt Sustainability: The Debt Sustainability Analysis and Bound Tests show that Argentina's external debt is sustainable under the current program.

Document Structure

• Press Release: Announces the completion of the second review and the approval of the disbursement.
• Staff Report: Includes the Debt Sustainability Analysis and updates on recent developments.
• Mission Team: Composed of IMF staff members and resident representatives, visited Argentina from November 8–16, 2018.
• Annexes and Appendices: Contain detailed data, including public debt sustainability analysis, budget details, and technical memoranda.

Summary of Key Tables and Figures

• Selected Economic and Financial Indicators: Highlights GDP growth, inflation, and fiscal balances.
• Consolidated Public Sector Operations: Details government spending and revenue trends.
• Monetary Base: Shows the contraction in base money and the impact of monetary policy.
• FX and Monetary Developments: Illustrates the exchange rate fluctuations and interest rate movements.
• Debt Sustainability Framework: Includes external debt and public debt metrics.
• Economic Activity Growth by Sector: Reveals sector-specific performance and contractions.

Conclusion

The IMF review affirms progress in Argentina's stabilization efforts, with inflation declining and the peso stabilizing. However, challenges remain, including the need for continued fiscal discipline, structural reforms, and addressing social vulnerabilities. The government's commitment to these reforms is critical for long-term economic stability and growth.