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报告摘要

Russia: Long-term Forecast Summary

Core Content

This report provides a long-term economic forecast for Russia, covering GDP growth, inflation, fiscal policy, monetary policy, and the impact of demographic and energy-related factors on economic performance.

Economic Growth Projections

GDP Growth: Russia is expected to recover from the 2015-16 recession, with annual growth rates of around 2% through 2020. Growth is anticipated to slow thereafter, reflecting weaker productivity and adverse demographics.
Trend GDP Growth: Trend GDP growth is projected to peak around 2020 and then gradually decline, reaching 1% by 2025.
Actual GDP Growth: Actual GDP growth is expected to converge towards the trend over the long-run, with the output gap stabilizing at zero.

Inflation Trends

CPI Inflation: CPI inflation is projected to decline from 6.5% in 2013 to 3.0% by 2025.
Inflation Drivers: Inflationary pressures are expected to subside over the medium- and long-term due to moderate economic growth and lower oil prices.
Monetary Policy: The Central Bank of Russia is expected to lower policy rates as inflation declines, but maintain a positive real interest rate (CPI-deflated) to support economic stability.

Fiscal Policy Outlook

Budget Deficits: Budget deficits widened in 2015-16 due to the recession, but are expected to gradually tighten over the long-term to stabilize the public debt-to-GDP ratio around 20%.
Fiscal Stance: The fiscal tightening is expected to be gradual, with no specific assumptions on tax policy or spending.
General Government Debt: The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise from 13.1% in 2013 to 20.0% by 2020, then stabilize at 20.0% through 2025.

Demographic and Labour Market Factors

Labour Force Participation: The trend in labour force participation is expected to rise in the near term and stabilize at slightly above 70% from 2020.
Labour Force Trends: The labour force is projected to decline steadily over the medium- to long-term due to worsening demographics.
Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate is closely linked to the activity ratio, and trend unemployment is estimated based on trend activity.

Labour Productivity and Investment

Labour Productivity: Labour productivity growth is influenced by terms of trade (oil prices) and the investment-to-GDP ratio.
Investment Trends: A rising young-age dependency ratio has been a key factor for the investment-to-GDP ratio over the past 25-30 years.
Excluding Terms of Trade: When excluding oil price effects, trend labour productivity and trend GDP growth are expected to flatten, with GDP growth slowing to 1% by 2025.

Oil Price Assumptions

Oil Price Stability: Oil prices are expected to stabilize at around 51-53 USD/bbl based on ICE Brent futures, with a gradual increase to 60 USD/bbl by 2021 according to IMF forecasts.
Impact on GDP: The recovery in oil prices is a key reason for the gradual increase in potential GDP growth until 2020, after which slower employment growth will push down trend GDP growth.

Savings and Investment

Savings and Investment Ratios: Both gross national savings and investment-to-GDP are estimated using trend employment, working age population, and demographic variables.
Ageing Population: An ageing population is associated with lower savings and lower investment due to increased pension obligations and lower savings propensity.

Current Account Balance

Current Account Volatility: Russia's actual current account balances are more volatile than demography-based estimates of savings and investment.
Projection Methodology: The current account balance is estimated using trend GDP growth, annual changes in oil prices, and short-term interest rates.

Main Inflation Drivers

Inflation and Growth: The long-term average GDP growth has been a fairly accurate guide for inflationary developments in Russia.
Exchange Rate Impact: Nominal rouble exchange rate swings have also been a key factor in explaining Russia's inflation pattern since 2013.

Summary of Key Assumptions

Policy Rate: The Central Bank of Russia will maintain a positive real interest rate over the medium- and long-term.
Fiscal Policy: The government will aim to stabilize public debt-to-GDP ratio around 20%.
Demographics: The labour force will peak around 2020 and then decline steadily.
Oil Prices: Oil price stability and gradual recovery are expected to support GDP growth in the short-term, but long-term growth will be driven by demographic trends.

Conclusion

Russia's economy is expected to experience a gradual recovery in GDP growth through 2020, followed by a long-term slowdown. Inflation will decline as economic growth moderates, and the Central Bank will adjust interest rates accordingly. Fiscal policy will aim to stabilize public debt over time, while demographic trends will slow the pace of potential GDP growth. Labour productivity and investment will continue to be shaped by oil prices and demographic factors, with a flattish trend in productivity growth expected as the impact of oil prices is excluded.