20170927-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_15页_983kb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary - 27 September 2017
Core Content Overview
This document provides a regional update on stock market activity and company developments across China, Malaysia, and Singapore, with a focus on the gaming and e-service sectors. It includes earnings forecasts, company-specific updates, and investment recommendations.
Main Points
China: Internet & Gaming Sector
- Gaming Landscape: The top 10 grossing mobile games in August 2017 showed a shift, with Tencent having four titles and NetEase two. The presence of NetEase in the top 10 has diminished due to new game launches.
- New Game Launches:
- NetEase launched the mobile version of Minecraft on 15 September 2017, which has been in the top five in China since its launch. The company is promoting it as free-to-play in China and offering incentives to international players.
- Tencent plans to launch Honour of Kings (HoK) on Nintendo Switch in the coming winter, potentially expanding its reach globally.
- Long-Term Outlook: NetEase is expected to benefit from in-game purchases, server rental fees, and commissions from player-created game modifications. Kingsoft is also expected to benefit from its 2018 games pipeline.
- Stock Picks:
- Tencent (700 HK): Buy, with a target price of HK$378, implying a potential 19.8% upside.
- NetEase (NTES US): Buy, with a target price of $347, implying a potential 34.3% upside.
- Kingsoft (3888 HK): Buy, with a target price of HK$28, implying a potential 63.5% upside.
- IGG (799 HK): Buy, with a target price of HK$14.5, implying a potential 6.6% upside.
- Sector Recommendation: Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the gaming sector due to strong growth prospects.
Malaysia: My E.G. Services (MYEG MK)
- Company Overview: MYEG provides e-services between the Malaysian government and its citizens and businesses, including foreign worker permit renewals, electronic delivery of driver and vehicle registration, and utility bill payments.
- Key Update: The company is strengthening its foreign worker accommodation services, with a pilot site in Melaka that is fully occupied. It has also leased land in Johor for a new accommodation site with a bed capacity of 10,000.
- Growth Strategy:
- The accommodation segment is expected to become the largest revenue contributor beyond FY19, with PBT projected to reach RM32.4m in FY18 and RM86.4m in FY19.
- The company is also developing a GST monitoring system, with a target of 500,000 devices, which could bring in RM125m in annual PBT.
- Financials:
- Net turnover is forecasted to grow from RM372m in FY17 to RM1,025m in FY20.
- EBITDA is expected to increase from RM183m in FY17 to RM353m in FY20.
- Net profit (adjusted) is projected to reach RM401m in FY20.
- Valuation:
- Current price: RM2.03, target price: RM2.29 (12.8% upside).
- PEG: 0.9x (2018F), with potential to increase to 1.0x.
- PE: 28.4x (2018F).
- Recommendation: Maintain HOLD due to the growth potential of the new ventures, though current valuation is seen as reasonable.
Singapore: Banyan Tree Holdings (BTH SP)
- Stock Pick: Buy, with a target price of S$0.92.
- Key Takeaways: The company's marketing trip highlighted its focus on providing a relaxing experience under the Banyan Tree brand.
Key Indices Performance
| Index | Prev Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 22284.3 | (0.1) | (0.4) | 2.2 | 12.8 |
| S&P 500 | 2496.8 | 0.0 | (0.4) | 2.2 | 11.5 |
| FTSE 100 | 7285.7 | (0.2) | 0.1 | (1.6) | 2.0 |
| AS30 | 5729.6 | (0.2) | (0.7) | (1.3) | 0.2 |
| CSI 300 | 3820.8 | 0.1 | (0.3) | 0.7 | 15.4 |
| FSSTI | 3212.0 | (0.1) | (0.4) | (1.5) | 11.5 |
| HSI | 27513.0 | 0.0 | (1.9) | (1.2) | 25.1 |
| KLCI | 1765.6 | (0.2) | (1.0) | (0.2) | 7.5 |
| KOSPI | 2374.3 | (0.3) | (1.7) | (0.2) | 17.2 |
| Nikkei 225 | 20330.2 | (0.3) | 0.2 | 4.5 | 6.4 |
| SET | 1669.8 | 0.1 | (0.2) | 6.0 | 8.2 |
| TWSE | 10257.0 | (0.8) | (3.0) | (2.5) | 10.8 |
| BDI | 1503 | 0.1 | 6.2 | 24.3 | 56.4 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2710 | (2.4) | (5.0) | 0.0 | (15.3) |
| Brent Crude | 58 | (1.0) | 6.0 | 11.5 | 2.9 |
Corporate Events
- Roadshow with China Yongda: Canada/US, 25–29 September 2017.
- Site Visit with Xin Point Holdings: China/Huizhou, 27 September 2017.
- Roadshow with BBI Life Science Corp: Hong Kong, 27–28 September 2017.
- Conference Call with Thai Union Group: Bangkok, 29 September 2017.
- Asian Gems Conference 2017: Singapore, 10–11 October 2017.
- UOB Kay Hian Annual Regional Strategy Conference: Kuala Lumpur, 13 November 2017.
Key Assumptions
| Region | GDP (yoy) 2016 | GDP (yoy) 2017F | GDP (yoy) 2018F |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Euro Zone | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Japan | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Singapore | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Malaysia | 4.2 | 5.0 | 4.9 |
| Thailand | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| Indonesia | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.5 |
| Hong Kong | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| China | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.3 |
| Brent (Average) | 45 | 52 | 55 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2,653 | 2,600 | 2,400 |
Analysts
- Julia Pan
- Email: juliapan@uobkayhian.com
- Phone: +8621 5404 7225 ext 808
- Pierce Qian
- Email: pierceqian@uobkayhian.com
- Phone: +8621 5404 7225 ext 801
Investment Highlights
- Tencent and NetEase remain top picks in the gaming sector.
- MYEG is expected to benefit from the expansion of foreign worker accommodation services and GST monitoring.
- Kingsoft and IGG are also recommended with positive growth potential.
Conclusion
The document highlights the strong performance and growth prospects of gaming companies in China, particularly Tencent and NetEase, and outlines the potential for MYEG to expand its revenue streams through new services. The recommendations emphasize the importance of tracking market indices and corporate developments to make informed investment decisions.
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