20150807-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_15页_747kb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary
Core Content
This document provides a summary of financial insights and market analysis for several Asian markets, including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, as of Friday, 07 August 2015. It includes updates on economic indicators, corporate results, sector developments, and investment recommendations.
Main Points
China
- RMB Exchange Rate: Expected to remain stable before the potential inclusion in the SDR basket in September 2016. The PBOC is likely to support the RMB to ensure stability, which is a prerequisite for the RMB's internationalisation.
- Economic Outlook: The RMB is expected to trade at Rmb6.22 per US$1 at the end of 2015 and possibly remain stable until SDR inclusion. The "freely usable" criterion remains a major hurdle for SDR inclusion.
- Automobile Sector:
- Auto dealers' margins are not significantly affected by discounting, and are expected to rebound due to increased rebates from OEMs.
- Car loan penetration surged in 2015, driven by active promotions and strong customer demand.
- E-commerce is a double-edged sword. While it has limited impact on car sales, it offers significant potential in after-sales services, auto financing, and insurance.
- Yongda's partnership with Alibaba is limited to certain car models and after-sales services due to the importance of physical testing and customer experience.
- Top Picks: Zhengtong (for its growing car loan business) and Baoxin (for its used-car sales and O2O platform potential).
Key Information
Market Indices
| Index | Prev Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 17419.8 | -0.7 | -1.8 | -1.5 | -2.3 |
| S&P 500 | 2083.6 | -0.8 | -1.2 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| FTSE 100 | 6747.1 | -0.1 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 2.8 |
| AS30 | 5600.1 | -1.0 | -0.9 | 0.6 | 3.9 |
| CSI 300 | 3831.9 | -0.9 | 0.4 | -2.4 | 8.4 |
| FSSTI | 3196.7 | 0.2 | -1.6 | -4.3 | -5.0 |
| HSCEI | 11093.3 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -6.2 | -7.4 |
| HSI | 24375.3 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -2.4 | 3.3 |
| JCI | 4806.6 | -0.9 | 2.0 | -2.0 | -8.0 |
| KLCI | 1694.6 | -1.8 | -0.3 | -1.0 | -3.8 |
| KOSPI | 2013.3 | -0.8 | -0.3 | -1.3 | 5.1 |
| Nikkei 225 | 20664.4 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 18.4 |
| SET | 1430.6 | -0.4 | 0.9 | -3.6 | -4.5 |
| TWSE | 8449.6 | -1.1 | -2.3 | -8.7 | -9.2 |
| BDI | 1201 | -1.7 | 9.2 | 47.4 | 53.6 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2041 | -0.4 | -3.8 | -9.9 | -11.1 |
| ICE Brent | 50 | -0.1 | -7.1 | -12.4 | -13.6 |
Top Picks
| Company | Ticker | Current Price | Target Price | Pot. +/- (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing Capital | 694 HK | 8.34 | 12.30 | 47.5 |
| ICBC | 1398 HK | 5.34 | 7.80 | 46.1 |
| Bank BJB | BJB IJ | 795.00 | 1,300.00 | 63.5 |
| DiGi.Com | DIGI MK | RM5.20 | RM6.30 | 23.6 |
| Banpu | BANPU TB | Bt24.10 | Bt28.00 | 29.7 |
| CapitaLand | CAPL SP | 3.22 | 4.08 | 26.7 |
| DBS | DBS SP | 20.32 | 25.12 | 23.6 |
| Kasikornbank | KBANK TB | 176.00 | 232.00 | 31.8 |
| PTT | PTT TB | Bt316.00 | Bt410.00 | 29.7 |
Key Assumptions
| Region | GDP (yoy) | 2013 | 2014 | 2015F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.9 |
| Euro Zone | 1.3 | -0.5 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Japan | 1.0 | 1.6 | -0.1 | 1.0 |
| Singapore | 2.9 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Malaysia | 5.0 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 5.0 |
| Thailand | 2.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 2.7 |
| Indonesia | 5.0 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Hong Kong | 3.7 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.7 |
| China | 7.0 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 7.0 |
| Indicator | 2014 | 2015F | 2016F |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent (US$/bbl) | 99.45 | 61 | 72 |
| CPO (US$/mt) | 722 | 765 | 788 |
Corporate Events
- QL Resources Berhad Roadshow: Taipei, 6–7 August 2015
- Agensi Inovasi Malaysia: Kuala Lumpur, 12 August 2015
- Phoenix Healthcare Group Roadshow: Singapore, 17–18 August 2015
- Yoma Strategic Group Meeting: Singapore, 18 August 2015
- Overseas Education New Campus: Singapore, 28 August 2015
Indonesia: Siloam International Hospital (SILO IJ)
- 1H15 Results: Strong performance, significantly ahead of expectations.
- Outpatient and Inpatient Admittances: Increased by 30% and 35% yoy respectively.
- Net Income: Rp62b in 1H15, up 34.5% yoy but down 20.1% qoq.
- New Hospitals: Narrowing losses as they ramp up in admissions.
- Investment View: Maintain BUY with a target price of Rp19,000, up from Rp15,560.
- Key Financials:
- Revenue: Rp1,011m in 2Q15, up 26.7% yoy.
- Gross Profit: Rp259m in 2Q15, up 31.2% yoy.
- Operating Profit: Rp72m in 2Q15, up 13.0% qoq.
- Net Profit: Rp28m in 2Q15, up 34.5% yoy.
- Segmental Performance:
- Inpatient Revenue: Up 27.6% yoy, with 35% increase in admittance.
- Outpatient Revenue: Up 25.4% yoy, with 30% increase in admittance.
- Gross Profit: Inpatient up 31.2% yoy, outpatient up 31.0% yoy.
- Earnings Forecast:
- 1H15 Net Income: Rp62b, up 27% from original forecast.
- 2015F Net Income: Rp106b, up from Rp84b.
- 2016F Revenue: Rp5,610m, up 27% from 2015F forecast.
Malaysia: DiGi.Com (DIGI MK)
- Earnings Trajectory: Back-loaded to 2016 due to heightened competition.
- Investment View: Maintain BUY with a target price of RM6.30.
- Peer Comparison:
- Market Cap: RM14,880m
- EPS CAGR 2015F: 19.4%
- PEG 2015F: 1.1x
- PB 2015F: 16.3x
- ROE 2015F: 21.2%
Thailand: Banpu (BANPU TB)
- Investment View: Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt28.00.
- Share Price: Factored in the weak performance of the coal business in 2Q15.
Analysts
- China: Chaoping Zhu (contact: +8621 5404 7225 ext. 822, email: chaoping@uobkayhian.com)
- Indonesia: Stevanus Juanda (contact: +6221 2993 3845, email: stevanusjuanda@uobkayhian.com)
- Malaysia: Ken Lee (contact: +852 2236 6760, email: ken.lee@uobkayhian.com.hk)
Summary of Key Takeaways
- The RMB is expected to remain stable before the potential inclusion in the SDR basket in September 2016.
- Auto dealers in China are seeing stable margins despite discounting, with e-commerce playing a limited role in car sales but offering potential in after-sales and financing.
- Siloam International Hospital delivered strong results in 1H15, with increased admittances and narrowing losses at new hospitals.
- DiGi.Com and Banpu are recommended as BUY due to their growth potential and market position.
- Key assumptions indicate a positive economic outlook for most Asian countries, with China and Indonesia showing strong GDP growth.
- Corporate events highlight ongoing business developments and investor engagement in the region.
Conclusion
The document provides a comprehensive view of the financial and economic landscape in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. It highlights stability in RMB exchange rate, positive results from key companies, and growth opportunities in the automobile and healthcare sectors. The investment recommendations focus on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, such as Siloam International Hospital, Zhengtong, and Baoxin.
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