20140905-招商证券_香港_-Morning_Express_11页_469kb

报告摘要

A-share Research Highlights Summary

Core Content

The A-share market is currently in a significant merger and acquisition (M&A) cycle, similar to the experiences of Europe and America in the 1990s. This cycle is characterized by concentrated and cyclical M&A activities, often peaking with the completion of large transactions or the failure of financing for such transactions. The M&A cycle typically occurs during bull markets, driven by factors such as technological evolution, easing regulatory control, market expansion, and demographic changes.

In industries in growth or maturity stages, horizontal integration is the most efficient strategy. However, in contraction stages, conglomerate integration is more suitable, though its effects can be mixed. Industries with scattered structures, technical challenges, and loosening control, such as environmental, internet, medical services, and finance, are expected to have the most urgent demand and largest potential for M&A activities.

M&A can lead to financial risks such as excessive liabilities and goodwill from overpricing. Operational risks may increase if synergy is not achieved, so attention should be paid to revenue growth and profit margin improvements. Studies show that most M&A activities do not create value, and when both parties are large businesses, the efficiency and valuation improvements are questionable. The primary beneficiaries of M&A are the targets, sellers, and funding providers.

Key Industries and Their M&A Potential

Auto & Auto Parts

Brilliance China (1114 HK): BUY, Price: HK$14.02, Target Price: HK$12.0, % Upside: -14, Market Cap: US$9,090M, EPS: 0.71, 0.80, 0.89, P/E: 15.7, 13.9, 12.5
BYD Company (1211 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$56.95, Target Price: HK$32.9, % Upside: -42, Market Cap: US$5,827M, EPS: 0.27, 0.69, 1.03, P/E: 167.3, 65.5, 43.9
China ZhengTong Auto (1728 HK): BUY, Price: HK$4.32, Target Price: HK$5.85, % Upside: 35, Market Cap: US$1,232M, EPS: 0.55, 0.81, 1.11, P/E: 6.2, 4.2, 3.1
Geely Automobile (175 HK): BUY, Price: HK$3.07, Target Price: HK$5.04, % Upside: 64, Market Cap: US$3,486M, EPS: 0.32, 0.36, 0.38, P/E: 7.6, 6.8, 6.4
CSR (1766 HK): BUY, Price: HK$0.0, Target Price: HK$8.08, % Upside: 0.0, Market Cap: US$0M, EPS: 0.31, 0.40, 0.45, P/E: 0.0, 0.0, 0.0
Great Wall Motor (2333 HK): BUY, Price: HK$33.35, Target Price: HK$43.4, % Upside: 30, Market Cap: US$4,445M, EPS: 2.74, 3.40, 3.82, P/E: 9.7, 7.8, 6.9
CSR Times Electric (3898 HK): BUY, Price: HK$30.0, Target Price: HK$32.03, % Upside: 7, Market Cap: US$2,118M, EPS: 1.10, 1.35, 1.62, P/E: 21.6, 17.6, 14.7
Minth Group (425 HK): BUY, Price: HK$16.76, Target Price: HK$13.2, % Upside: -21, Market Cap: US$2,362M, EPS: 0.78, 0.87, 0.97, P/E: 17.0, 15.3, 13.7
Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): BUY, Price: HK$13.92, Target Price: HK$14.17, % Upside: 2, Market Cap: US$5,128M, EPS: 1.13, 1.26, 1.29, P/E: 9.8, 8.8, 8.6
Zhongsheng Group (881 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$8.59, Target Price: HK$10.3, % Upside: 20, Market Cap: US$2,379M, EPS: 0.58, 0.71, 0.99, P/E: 11.7, 9.6, 6.9

Oil and Gas

SPT Energy (1251 HK): BUY, Price: HK$3.82, Target Price: HK$6.2, % Upside: 62, Market Cap: US$755M, EPS: 0.20, 0.23, 0.32, P/E: 15.2, 13.2, 9.5
Hilong Holding (1623 HK): BUY, Price: HK$4.15, Target Price: HK$5.2, % Upside: 25, Market Cap: US$908M, EPS: 0.21, 0.28, 0.37, P/E: 15.7, 11.8, 8.9
Chu Kong Petroleum (1938 HK): BUY, Price: HK$2.71, Target Price: HK$3.28, % Upside: 21, Market Cap: US$353M, EPS: 0.04, 0.14, 0.24, P/E: 53.7, 15.4, 9.0
China Oilfield Services (2883 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$22.9, Target Price: HK$21.0, % Upside: -8, Market Cap: US$5,350M, EPS: 1.49, 1.52, 1.61, P/E: 12.2, 12.0, 11.3
Jutal Offshore Oil Services (3303 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$3.0, Target Price: HK$1.8, % Upside: -40, Market Cap: US$300M, EPS: 0.08, 0.09, 0.10, P/E: 29.7, 26.4, 23.8
Anton Oilfield Services (3337 HK): BUY, Price: HK$3.46, Target Price: HK$5.5, % Upside: 59, Market Cap: US$979M, EPS: 0.18, 0.22, 0.29, P/E: 15.2, 12.5, 9.5
NewOcean Energy (342 HK): BUY, Price: HK$4.22, Target Price: HK$9.83, % Upside: 133, Market Cap: US$808M, EPS: 0.55, 0.56, 0.75, P/E: 7.7, 7.5, 5.6
Sinopec (386 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$8.14, Target Price: HK$8.7, % Upside: 7, Market Cap: US$26,791M, EPS: 0.57, 0.66, 0.68, P/E: 11.3, 9.8, 9.5
CIMC Enric (3899 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$8.7, Target Price: HK$13.88, % Upside: 60, Market Cap: US$2,126M, EPS: 0.50, 0.59, 0.68, P/E: 13.8, 11.7, 10.2
United Energy Group (467 HK): BUY, Price: HK$1.12, Target Price: HK$2.0, % Upside: 79, Market Cap: US$1,886M, EPS: 0.09, 0.10, 0.13, P/E: 12.4, 11.2, 8.6
China Oil And Gas Group (603 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$1.38, Target Price: HK$1.45, % Upside: 5, Market Cap: US$890M, EPS: 0.08, 0.10, 0.13, P/E: 17.3, 13.8, 10.6
Petrochina (857 HK): BUY, Price: HK$11.62, Target Price: HK$11.2, % Upside: -4, Market Cap: US$31,627M, EPS: 0.71, 0.74, 0.78, P/E: 13.0, 12.5, 11.8
CNOOC (883 HK): BUY, Price: HK$15.54, Target Price: HK$17.0, % Upside: 9, Market Cap: US$89,503M, EPS: 1.26, 1.40, 1.50, P/E: 9.8, 8.8, 8.2

What to Watch

Economic Data

U.S.: Average Hourly Earnings on Sep 5, Forecast: 0.17%
U.S.: Unemployment Rate on Sep 5, Forecast: 6.10%
Germany: Industrial Production YoY, Forecast: 7.16%
Eurozone: GDP Revised YoY, Forecast: 0.70%

Company Events

HUAZHANG TECH (08276): Result on 2014/09/05

Research Coverage List

Property

China Resources Land (1109 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$18.7, Target Price: HK$17.0, % Upside: -9, Market Cap: US$14,066M, EPS: 2.52, 2.11, 2.28, P/E: 7.4, 8.9, 8.2
Colour Life Group (1778 HK): BUY, Price: HK$7.11, Target Price: HK$6.19, % Upside: -13, Market Cap: US$917M, EPS: 0.04, 0.17, 0.35, P/E: 141.0, 33.2, 16.1
Sunac China (1918 HK): BUY, Price: HK$6.57, Target Price: HK$6.7, % Upside: 2, Market Cap: US$2,820M, EPS: 0.96, 1.14, 1.34, P/E: 5.4, 4.6, 3.9
Evergrande Real Estate (3333 HK): BUY, Price: HK$3.34, Target Price: HK$4.38, % Upside: 31, Market Cap: US$6,259M, EPS: 0.79, 0.79, 0.80, P/E: 3.4, 3.4, 3.3
Greentown China (3900 HK): BUY, Price: HK$8.83, Target Price: HK$15.8, % Upside: 79, Market Cap: US$2,459M, EPS: 2.18, 2.49, 2.19, P/E: 3.2, 2.8, 3.2
China Overseas Land (688 HK): BUY, Price: HK$22.75, Target Price: HK$22.56, % Upside: -1, Market Cap: US$23,985M, EPS: 2.82, 2.91, 3.50, P/E: 8.1, 7.8, 6.5
Hopson Development (754 HK): BUY, Price: HK$8.0, Target Price: HK$19.1, % Upside: 139, Market Cap: US$2,316M, EPS: 2.10, 2.00, 2.22, P/E: 3.8, 4.0, 3.6

Metals and Mining

China Hongqiao (1378 HK): BUY, Price: HK$0.0, Target Price: HK$8.0, % Upside: 0.0, Market Cap: US$0M, EPS: 0.95, 0.98, 1.23, P/E: 0.0, 0.0, 0.0
Zhaojin Mining (1818 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$4.76, Target Price: HK$4.7, % Upside: -1, Market Cap: US$537M, EPS: 0.25, 0.24, 0.17, P/E: 15.1, 15.7, 22.2
Aluminum Corp of China (2600 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$3.67, Target Price: HK$2.8, % Upside: -24, Market Cap: US$1,867M, EPS: 0.07, -0.07, -0.06, P/E: 41.6, N.A., N.A.
Zijin Mining (2899 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$2.03, Target Price: HK$1.57, % Upside: -23, Market Cap: US$1,573M, EPS: 0.10, 0.10, 0.08, P/E: 16.1, 16.1, 20.1
Jiangxi Copper (358 HK): SELL, Price: HK$14.16, Target Price: HK$10.2, % Upside: -28, Market Cap: US$2,534M, EPS: 1.03, 0.81, 0.66, P/E: 10.9, 13.9, 17.0
RUSAL (486 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$4.18, Target Price: HK$3.1, % Upside: -26, Market Cap: US$8,124M, EPS: -0.21, 0.04, 0.05, P/E: N.A., 13.5, 10.8

Technology, Media & Telecom

China Telecom (728 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$5.16, Target Price: HK$3.45, % Upside: -33, Market Cap: US$9,237M, EPS: 0.22, 0.25, 0.28, P/E: 18.6, 16.4, 14.6
China Unicom (762 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$13.9, Target Price: HK$11.34, % Upside: -18, Market Cap: US$42,650M, EPS: 0.44, 0.65, 0.76, P/E: 25.1, 17.0, 14.5
China Mobile (941 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$100.5, Target Price: HK$78.0, % Upside: -22, Market Cap: US$262,061M, EPS: 6.02, 5.34, 5.27, P/E: 13.2, 14.9, 15.1
Wisdom (1661 HK): BUY, Price: HK$5.06, Target Price: HK$7.0, % Upside: 38, Market Cap: US$1,050M, EPS: 0.14, 0.20, 0.29, P/E: 28.7, 20.1, 13.8
Kingdee (268 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$2.62, Target Price: HK$1.4, % Upside: -47, Market Cap: US$862M, EPS: 0.05, 0.08, 0.10, P/E: 41.6, 26.0, 20.8
Chinasoft (354 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$2.9, Target Price: HK$2.0, % Upside: -31, Market Cap: US$695M, EPS: 0.08, 0.10, 0.13, P/E: 28.8, 23.0, 17.7
Kingsoft (3888 HK): BUY, Price: HK$21.75, Target Price: HK$37.05, % Upside: 70, Market Cap: US$3,319M, EPS: 0.55, 0.63, 0.95, P/E: 31.4, 27.4, 18.2
SinoMedia (623 HK): BUY, Price: HK$5.55, Target Price: HK$8.07, % Upside: 45, Market Cap: US$415M, EPS: 0.64, 0.73, 0.83, P/E: 6.9, 6.0, 5.3
Tencent (700 HK): BUY, Price: HK$129.4, Target Price: HK$152.0, % Upside: 17, Market Cap: US$31,126M, EPS: 1.66, 2.63, 3.37, P/E: 61.8, 39.0, 30.5
NetDragon (777 HK): BUY, Price: HK$14.8, Target Price: HK$20.34, % Upside: 37, Market Cap: US$971M, EPS: 0.32, 0.65, 0.82, P/E: 36.7, 18.1, 14.3

Hardware Technology

AAC Technologies (2018 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$51.8, Target Price: HK$48.25, % Upside: -7, Market Cap: US$8,206M, EPS: 2.10, 2.10, 2.60, P/E: 19.6, 19.6, 15.8
Coolpad (2369 HK): BUY, Price: HK$1.75, Target Price: HK$2.31, % Upside: 32, Market Cap: US$481M, EPS: 0.08, 0.19, 0.23, P/E: 21.9, 9.2, 7.6
Sunny Optical (2382 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$10.66, Target Price: HK$8.37, % Upside: -21, Market Cap: US$1,509M, EPS: 0.41, 0.54, 0.73, P/E: 20.6, 15.7, 11.6
TCL Comm (2618 HK): BUY, Price: HK$9.53, Target Price: HK$12.5, % Upside: 31, Market Cap: US$1,429M, EPS: 0.28, 0.98, 1.34, P/E: 34.0, 9.7, 7.1
Truly (732 HK): BUY, Price: HK$4.43, Target Price: HK$7.15, % Upside: 61, Market Cap: US$1,666M, EPS: 0.56, 0.67, 0.79, P/E: 7.9, 6.6, 5.6
Lenovo Group (992 HK): BUY, Price: HK$12.26, Target Price: HK$14.2, % Upside: 16, Market Cap: US$16,458M, EPS: 0.08, 0.09, 0.12, P/E: 19.8, 17.6, 13.2

Textile & Garment

China Lilang (1234 HK): BUY, Price: HK$5.28, Target Price: HK$5.14, % Upside: -3, Market Cap: US$818M, EPS: 0.43, 0.41, 0.44, P/E: 9.7, 10.2, 9.5
361 Degrees (1361 HK): SELL, Price: HK$2.31, Target Price: HK$1.76, % Upside: -24, Market Cap: US$616M, EPS: 0.12, 0.12, 0.13, P/E: 15.3, 15.3, 14.1
Xstep International (1368 HK): BUY, Price: HK$4.03, Target Price: HK$3.31, % Upside: -18, Market Cap: US$1,132M, EPS: 0.28, 0.26, 0.28, P/E: 11.4, 12.3, 11.4
Belle (1880 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$10.32, Target Price: HK$7.89, % Upside: -24, Market Cap: US$11,228M, EPS: 0.52, 0.52, 0.54, P/E: 15.7, 15.7, 15.2
Peak Sport (1968 HK): BUY, Price: HK$2.39, Target Price: HK$2.72, % Upside: 14, Market Cap: US$647M, EPS: 0.12, 0.14, 0.16, P/E: 15.8, 13.5, 11.9
ANTA Sports Products (2020 HK): BUY, Price: HK$14.92, Target Price: HK$20.6, % Upside: 38, Market Cap: US$4,803M, EPS: 0.53, 0.59, 0.66, P/E: 22.3, 20.1, 17.9
Li Ning (2331 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$4.64, Target Price: HK$5.3, % Upside: 14, Market Cap: US$821M, EPS: -0.30, -0.21, 0.06, P/E: N.A., N.A., 61.3
China Dongxiang (3818 HK): BUY, Price: HK$1.7, Target Price: HK$1.59, % Upside: -6, Market Cap: US$1,214M, EPS: 0.04, 0.04, 0.05, P/E: 33.7, 33.7, 27.0
Ports Design (589 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$3.11, Target Price: HK$3.26, % Upside: 5, Market Cap: US$222M, EPS: 0.53, 0.55, 0.66, P/E: 4.7, 4.5, 3.7

Food & Beverage

Want Want China (151 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$9.85, Target Price: HK$13.05, % Upside: 32, Market Cap: US$16,521M, EPS: 0.05, 0.06, 0.07, P/E: 25.4, 21.2, 18.2
China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK): BUY, Price: HK$36.05, Target Price: HK$47.0, % Upside: 30, Market Cap: US$9,102M, EPS: 0.90, 1.24, 1.54, P/E: 31.8, 23.1, 18.6
Tingyi (322 HK): BUY, Price: HK$22.05, Target Price: HK$24.9, % Upside: 13, Market Cap: US$15,379M, EPS: 0.07, 0.10, 0.11, P/E: 40.6, 28.4, 25.9
Vitasoy (345 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$10.06, Target Price: HK$10.8, % Upside: 7, Market Cap: US$1,342M, EPS: 0.30, 0.36, 0.39, P/E: 33.5, 27.9, 25.8

Retail

Haier Electronics (1169 HK): BUY, Price: HK$22.35, Target Price: HK$24.6, % Upside: 10, Market Cap: US$7,727M, EPS: 0.78, 0.89, 1.06, P/E: 22.7, 19.9, 16.7
Springland International (1700 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$3.16, Target Price: HK$3.3, % Upside: 4, Market Cap: US$1,006M, EPS: 0.28, 0.29, 0.32, P/E: 9.0, 8.6, 7.8
Sa Sa International (178 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$6.26, Target Price: HK$5.7, % Upside: -9, Market Cap: US$2,296M, EPS: 0.34, 0.35, 0.38, P/E: 18.4, 17.9, 16.5
Intime Retail Group (1833 HK): BUY, Price: HK$7.11, Target Price: HK$8.3, % Upside: 17, Market Cap: US$1,842M, EPS: 0.52, 0.41, 0.45, P/E: 10.8, 13.8, 12.5
GOME ELECTRICAL (493 HK): BUY, Price: HK$1.41, Target Price: HK$1.8, % Upside: 28, Market Cap: US$3,068M, EPS: 0.05, 0.08, 0.09, P/E: 22.4, 14.0, 12.4
Bonjour Holdings (653 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$1.21, Target Price: HK$1.2, % Upside: -1, Market Cap: US$532M, EPS: 0.09, 0.09, 0.10, P/E: 13.4, 13.4, 12.1
Sinomax (1418 HK): BUY, Price: HK$1.06, Target Price: HK$1.49, % Upside: 41, Market Cap: US$226M, EPS: 0.10, 0.12, 0.15, P/E: 10.6, 8.8, 7.1

Alternative Energy

Datang Renewable Power (1798 HK): SELL, Price: HK$1.21, Target Price: HK$0.74, % Upside: -39, Market Cap: US$390M, EPS: 0.03, 0.03, 0.04, P/E: 32.0, 32.0, 24.0
China Wind Power (182 HK): BUY, Price: HK$0.75, Target Price: HK$1.1, % Upside: 47, Market Cap: US$866M, EPS: 0.02, 0.04, 0.06, P/E: 37.5, 18.8, 12.5
Xinjiang Goldwind (2208 HK): BUY, Price: HK$12.88, Target Price: HK$12.3, % Upside: -5, Market Cap: US$831M, EPS: 0.16, 0.37, 0.55, P/E: 63.8, 27.6, 18.6
GCL-Poly Energy (3800 HK): BUY, Price: HK$2.92, Target Price: HK$2.83, % Upside: -3, Market Cap: US$5,833M, EPS: -0.04, 0.11, 0.18, P/E: N.A., 26.6, 16.2
Singyes Solar (750 HK): BUY, Price: HK$13.6, Target Price: HK$14.23, % Upside: 5, Market Cap: US$1,217M, EPS: 0.75, 1.02, 1.14, P/E: 14.4, 10.6, 9.5
Tianneng Power (819 HK): BUY, Price: HK$2.81, Target Price: HK$6.65, % Upside: 137, Market Cap: US$403M, EPS: 0.16, 0.57, 1.10, P/E: 13.9, 3.9, 2.0
China Longyuan Power (916 HK): BUY, Price: HK$8.54, Target Price: HK$9.84, % Upside: 15, Market Cap: US$3,680M, EPS: 0.26, 0.36, 0.45, P/E: 26.1, 18.8, 15.1
Huaneng Renewables (958 HK): BUY, Price: HK$3.07, Target Price: HK$3.3, % Upside: 7, Market Cap: US$3,576M, EPS: 0.10, 0.12, 0.18, P/E: 24.4, 20.3, 13.5

Port & Shipping

COSCO Pacific (1199 HK): BUY, Price: HK$11.1, Target Price: HK$12.46, % Upside: 12, Market Cap: US$4,170M, EPS: 0.25, 0.12, 0.13, P/E: 5.7, 11.9, 11.0

Machinery & Equipment

Zoomlion Heavy (1157 HK): NEUTRAL, Price: HK$4.99, Target Price: HK$4.2, % Upside: -16, Market Cap: US$921M, EPS: 0.51, 0.26, 0.29, P/E: 7.8, 15.2, 13.7
CMEC (1829 HK): BUY, Price: HK$4.37, Target Price: HK$7.01, % Upside:

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