2025-06-13-花旗集团-瑞萨电子（6723）_瑞萨电子（6723.T）_维持中性评级——鉴于持续的担忧_股价可能横盘波动_13页_545kb

报告摘要

Citigroup maintains a Neutral rating for Renesas Electronics, with a target price of ¥2,200 per share, down from ¥2,500. The shares are expected to trend sideways due to ongoing concerns, including tariffs impacting the automotive business in H2 2025, uncertainties in the power semiconductor segment (such as deposit provisioning and operational timing), and yen appreciation.
The outlook is cautiously flat amid a highly uncertain environment, influenced by inventory adjustments, economic slowdown risks, and currency factors.

Earnings Revision: Overall financial forecasts revised downward based on a stronger yen assumption (¥140/$ vs. prior ¥145/$). FY2025E non-GAAP operating profit is ¥368bn, a YoY decline of 7.5%, with sales at ¥1,320,000m.
Short-term Forecast: April-June 2025 sales expected to grow 0.7% QoQ to ¥24,543M, non-GAAP OP at ¥81.0bn (-¥2.8bn QoQ). July-September is projected for an 11% QoQ sales growth and a non-GAAP OP recovery to ¥99bn, supported by inventory cycles and consumer seasonality.
Key metrics: 12-month target price of ¥2,200, expected share price return of 12.2%, dividend yield of 1.5%, and total expected return of 13.8%.

Valuation based on EV/EBITDA approach: FY2026E EBITDA forecast of ¥506bn at an 9.5x multiple yields an equity value per share of ¥2,200.
Market cap is ¥3,521,863M, with consensus multiples reflecting peer data and adjustments for business structure and historical discounts.
Investment recommendation: Neutral rating, as concerns about macroeconomic factors and industry-specific risks limit upside potential; no formal guidance on buy/sell catalysts, only sideways trend expectation.

Primary risks include auto production volumes, economic shifts (capex demand), yen fluctuations, semiconductor cycle variations, and potential acquisition activities for Renesas or related event reports. These factors could lead to price overshooting or undershooting the target.

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