20170213-USDA-Feed_Outlook_19页_818kb

报告摘要

Summary of U.S. Economic Research Service Feed Outlook (FDS-17b, February 13, 2017)

Core Content

The U.S. Economic Research Service (ERS) released the February 13, 2017 Feed Outlook, providing an update on the supply, use, and price forecasts for major feed grains including corn, sorghum, barley, and oats. The report outlines the current and projected trends for domestic and international markets, emphasizing the impact of increased ethanol and sweetener production, as well as shifts in trade and consumption patterns.

Main Points

Corn Outlook

Projected Disappearance: Increased by 35 million bushels to a record 14,620 million bushels for the 2016/17 marketing year, 7% higher than the previous year.
Feed and Residual Use: Raised by 0.6 million metric tons to 156.2 million, reflecting increased use in the U.S. feed industry.
Grain Consuming Animal Units (GCAU): Projected at 96.0 million units, up 1.9 million from the 2015/16 revised estimate.
Feed and Residual per GCAU: Increased to 1.63 tons per unit, slightly higher than last month.
Corn Prices: The projected season-average price received by producers is unchanged at $3.40 per bushel, with a narrowed range from $3.20 to $4.60.
Ending Stocks: Reduced to 2,320 million bushels, 34% higher than last year but still expected to be record high.
Ethanol Use: Raised by 25 million bushels to 5,350 million, supported by strong ethanol production and export demand, especially to Brazil.
Corn Trade: Increased globally to 143.1 million tons, with a significant rise in Ukraine's exports due to higher production and sales.
U.S. Corn Exports: Forecast at 56.5 million tons, unchanged from the previous month, but expected to slow in the coming months due to competition from Brazil and Argentina.

Sorghum Outlook

Export Prospects: Reduced by 25 million bushels to 225 million due to lower Chinese imports and sluggish U.S. export commitments.
Feed and Residual Use: Increased to 130 million bushels, partly offsetting the decline in exports.
Sorghum Prices: Projected to decrease by $0.20 per bushel at the midpoint to $2.50 to $2.90, influenced by the price relationship with corn in some interior markets.
U.S. Sorghum Exports: Reduced by 0.5 million tons to 5.8 million, with a slow pace of sales and shipments.

Barley and Oats Outlook

Barley: Price forecasts are raised, with the range updated to $4.70 to $5.20, and the midpoint to $4.95 per bushel. This is due to higher prices for feed barley compared to corn.
Oats: Season-average price received by producers is raised to $2.05 per bushel, with the range updated to $2.05 to $2.10.

Key International Trends

Global Coarse Grain Production: Increased by 1.4 million tons to 1,329 million, driven by higher output in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Mexico.
Global Coarse Grain Use: Projected up by 4.9 million tons, mainly due to increased consumption in China and the U.S.
World Ending Stocks: Reduced by 3.2 million tons to 250.7 million, with most of the reduction in China and the U.S.
Corn Trade: Increased by 1.0 million tons globally, with Ukraine and Canada showing significant growth in exports.
Sorghum Trade: U.S. sorghum exports are down due to decreased demand from China, while other countries like Ukraine and Canada show increased exports.
Corn Imports: China's corn imports are reduced as internal prices drop, leading to increased use of domestic supplies. Vietnam and Iran also show increased corn imports.

Supporting Data and Tables

Table A1 and A2: Provide detailed changes in coarse grain production by region and country, including specific reasons for the revisions.
Table B: Summarizes changes in coarse grain domestic consumption, highlighting increases in China, Vietnam, and decreases in Canada and Iran.
Table D: Outlines changes in coarse grain trade, with U.S. exports down for sorghum and up for corn in some regions.
Maps B1 and B2: Visualize changes in corn feed and residual use, as well as corn FSI use across the globe.

Price and Market Outlook

Corn Price Range: Narrowed to $3.20 to $4.60 per bushel, with the midpoint unchanged at $3.40.
Sorghum Price Range: Reduced to $2.50 to $2.90 per bushel.
Barley and Oats: Both crops show increased price forecasts, with barley at $4.70 to $5.20 and oats at $2.05 to $2.10.

Contacts and Resources

Tom Capehart (Domestic): tCAPEhart@ers.usda.gov
Olga Liefert (International): oliefert@ers.usda.gov
Subscription Information: Available via USDA's ERS e-mail notification service and through the USDA Order Desk.
Data Sources: Feed Grains Database, WASDE reports, and other ERS publications.
Related Websites: Feed Outlook, WASDE, Grain Circular, and World Agricultural Production.

Conclusion

The February 2017 Feed Outlook highlights a shift in global and U.S. corn use, driven by increased ethanol and industrial demand, with a corresponding decline in ending stocks. Sorghum exports are down due to reduced Chinese demand, while barley and oats show improved price forecasts. The report also provides detailed production, consumption, and trade data, supporting informed decision-making for stakeholders in the agricultural sector.

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