20220913-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_6页_894kb

报告摘要

CMBI Credit Commentary Summary

Core Content

This document is a Fixed Income Daily Market Update from CMBI Fixed Income Department, providing insights into the Chinese and offshore Asian bond markets and macroeconomic developments. It outlines recent market movements, policy updates, new issue activity, and analyst perspectives on the credit environment.

Main Market Movements

Onshore Market

The market was fairly quiet ahead of the CPI release.
IG (Investment Grade) bonds showed slight strength.
Industrials were unchanged to 1pt lower.
FOSUNIs dropped 2-3pts by midday following onshore chatter.
Gaming sector extended 0.5-1pt higher, with WYNMACs/MPELs picking up 2-5pts.
COGARD initially faced selling pressure but closed 1.5-3pts higher due to its RMB1.5bn three-year MTN issuance guaranteed by CBICL.
CIFIHG'26 rose 2.5pts, while other tranches were unchanged.
GRNLGR bonds, particularly the 22-23s, fell 6-9pts due to PB selling without verified news.
GRNLGR 24-26s closed 4-6pts lower after the Mid-autumn holidays.
CHINSC remained unchanged despite a rating downgrade to B2/B3.

Offshore Market

SOE Perps and LGFVs were highly sought after, with yields above 4%.
Non-Chinese asset managers sold more in the LGFV space as investors trimmed risk ahead of the CPI print.
TMT sector was firm, with TENCNT/BABA trading 3-5bps wider.
Ex-China HY bonds saw positive movements, especially in Indian and Indonesian markets.

Top Movers

Top Performers

WYNMAC 4 7/8 10/01/24: +5.2 pts
WYNMAC 5 1/2 01/15/26: +5.1 pts
WYNMAC 5 1/2 10/01/27: +4.9 pts
MSFLCZ 3.15 03/10/24: +3.3 pts
COGARD 4.2 02/06/26: +3.2 pts

Top Underperformers

GRNLGR 5.6 11/13/22: -9.2 pts
GRNLGR 5 3/4 09/26/22: -8.0 pts
GRNLGR 6 1/8 04/22/23: -7.3 pts
GRNLGR 6 3/4 06/25/23: -7.1 pts
GRNLGR 5.9 02/12/23: -6.0 pts

Macro News Recap

U.S. stock markets rallied, with S&P +1.07%, Dow +0.71%, and Nasdaq +1.14%.
Markets expected CPI to drop to -8.0% due to falling commodity prices.
U.S. dollar index fell 5 days in a row, reaching 108.
U.S. treasury yields rebounded, with 2/5/10/30-year yields at 3.58%/3.47%/3.37%/3.53%.
Credit growth slowed in August, with social financing at 10.5% YoY and M2 growth at 12.2% YoY.
M1 growth remained low, reflecting weak business activity.
Housing demand improved slightly, but consumer confidence and property market sentiment were still low.
Outstanding trust loans dropped 27.4% YoY, indicating credit risk concerns in the property sector.
Policy banks were urged to increase special loans to support infrastructure financing.

Credit Policy Outlook

China may further ease credit policy due to weak credit demand.
The PBOC is expected to maintain easing liquidity to stimulate credit supply.
Mortgage rate cuts could be considered if housing demand remains weak in September and October.
Exchange rate flexibility and lower deposit rates are needed to create more room for credit loosening.
Credit growth is expected to slow in September but slowly improve in Q4 2022.

New Issues

Offshore Asia New Issues (Priced)

Lianyungang Port Group Co., Ltd. issued USD60mn 3-year MTN at 6.0% coupon and 6.0% yield, with BBB rating.

Offshore Asia New Issues (Pipeline)

No new issues were in the pipeline for offshore Asia.

Key Events and Comments

ABM Investama received majority approval for its acquisition of Golden Energy Mines.
Moody's downgraded China SCE Group's corporate family rating to B2 from B1, with negative outlook.
Modern Land extended the RSA Longstop Date to 23 Sep'22.
Road King Infrastructure redeemed USD26.5m of 6.7% senior notes.
Red Star Macalline was downgraded by Fitch to B from BB, with rating watch negative.
Sino-ocean increased coupon rate to 5.3% for its 20Yuanzi01 bonds.
Yincheng International advanced RMB1.937bn to non-controlling shareholders.
Zensun Enterprises remitted USD36.4mn to repay senior notes.
Zhengrong bondholders agreed to postpone interest payments for 50 days.

Important Disclosures

The report is not investment advice and does not guarantee accuracy.
CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the U.S., U.K., or Singapore.
The report is intended for institutional investors only.
Conflicts of interest may exist due to investment banking relationships.

Conclusion

The document provides a comprehensive overview of the Chinese and offshore Asian bond markets, highlighting market trends, policy implications, and new issue activity. It emphasizes the need for further credit easing in China, driven by weak credit demand and ongoing challenges in the property and housing sectors. The U.S. macroeconomic environment also plays a role in shaping market sentiment and bond performance.