20260120-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_6页_894kb

CMBI Credit Commentary Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed market update and analysis from the Fixed Income Department of CMBI, covering bond price movements, macroeconomic developments in China, and new issue activity in offshore Asia. It also includes insights from desk analysts on key issuers, policy expectations, and risk factors.

Key Market Movements

• Bond Price Changes:

  • SHUION 9.75 01/26/29 was up 0.3pt from RO at 98.423.
  • Asian FRNs were 1-2bps wider, while Asian fixed-rate IG bonds were 1-3bps tighter.
  • KUAISH 31-36s tightened by 2bps.
  • VLLPM 29 was 0.7pt lower.
  • EHICAR 27-29 recovered 0.9pt.
  • NWDEVL Perps/VDNWDL Perps surged 0.4-8.3pts.
  • NWD shares jumped 16% to a two-year high after media reported potential support from Chow Tai Fook Enterprises.
  • FAEACO 12.814 Perp/LASUDE 26 increased by another 0.6pt.
  • CHIOIL 26 also edged 0.6pt higher.
  • EHICAR 26-27 dropped 1.0-1.5pts.
  • LNGFOR 27-32 were down by 0.2-0.9pts.
  • VNKRLE 27-29 retraced 0.6pt.
  • In KR space, POHANG/SKBTAM were 1-2bps wider.
  • In JP space, MUFG 32-37s/TACHEM 35/NTT 35 softened to 2-5bps wider.
  • SOFTBK 65 was 0.9pt lower.
  • In SE Asia space, BBLTB T2s widened by 1-3bps.
  • ACENPM 4 Perp lost 0.9pt.
  • VEDLN 28-33s/SMCGL Perps were down by 0.1-0.4pt.
  • ReNew Energy complex were 0.4pt lower to 0.1pt higher.
  • INDYIJ 29s/MEDCIJ 26-30s were unchanged to 0.1pt lower.
  • GLPSPs gained 0.1-0.3pt.
  • SNBAB 6.15 Perp lost 0.1pt.
  • HUXJDP 2.65 10/27/26 was 1.0pt lower.

• Top Performers:

  • NWDEVL 10.131 PERP: 74.5 (8.3pt)
  • NWDEVL 4 1/8 PERP: 61.7 (5.8pt)
  • NWDEVL 5 1/4 PERP: 69.9 (4.6pt)
  • NWDEVL 6 1/4 PERP: 57.6 (4.5pt)
  • GRNLGR 6 3/4 06/25/28: 17.5 (4.4pt)

• Top Underperformers:

  • EHICAR 7 09/21/26: 75.8 (-1.5pt)
  • HUXJDP 2.65 10/27/26: 96.8 (-1.0pt)
  • EHICAR 12 09/26/27: 62.8 (-1.0pt)
  • SOFTBK 8 1/4 10/29/65: 94.2 (-0.9pt)
  • ACENPM 4 PERP: 66.3 (-0.9pt)

Main Views and Key Information

CHIOIL New Issue

• New Issue: CHIOIL 29 (3NC2) is priced at 7.25%.
• Valuation: The FV of the new CHIOIL 29 is expected to be high-6% versus the IPT at 7.25%.
• Guarantee: The new issue is guaranteed by certain non-PRC incorporated subsidiaries.
• Use of Proceeds: Proceeds will be used to fund the tender offer for CHIOIL 4.7 06/30/26 and general corporate purposes.
• Tender Offer Details:
  • Security name: CHIOIL 4.7 06/30/26
  • ISIN: XS2328392951
  • Amount outstanding: USD361mn
  • Tender price: at par (100)
  • Expiration deadline: 26 Jan'26 4pm GMT
  • Settlement date: On or about 28 Jan'26

China Economy Outlook

• GDP Growth: China's full-year GDP growth in 2025 was 5%, slightly below expectations. It is expected to decline to 4.8% in 2026.
• Policy Expectations:
  • CMBI expects a 50bp RRR cut and a 10bp LPR cut in 1Q26.
  • An additional 10bp LPR cut is anticipated in 3Q26.
  • Broad-fiscal deficit is expected to remain almost flat at 8.5% in 2026.
• Economic Challenges:
  • Weakening growth and a shrinking working-age population pose long-term structural risks.
  • The property market continues to contract, with both sales and prices declining.
  • Retail sales growth slowed to 0.9% in December, below market consensus.
  • FAI (Fixed Asset Investment) growth dropped to -16% in December, further indicating economic weakness.

Other Market Highlights

• New Issues:

  • SHUION 9.75 01/26/29: USD300mn, Unrated, 3NC1.5
  • China Oil & Gas: Ba3/BB/-, 3NC2
  • The Republic of the Philippines: Baa2/BBB+/BBB
  • Toyota Finance Australia: A1/A+/-, 3.25yr/5yr
  • Woori Bank: A1/A+/-, 3yr/5yr

• News and Market Color:

  • Onshore primary issuances: 100 credit bonds issued with RMB94bn, a 27.3% YoY decrease.
  • Moody's downgraded Dalian Wanda Commercial Management Group's CFR to Ca from Caa2.
  • Nickel Industries expects 4Q25 adjusted EBITDA from operations to be USD35-40mn.
  • Road King updated offshore debt restructuring progress, with projected net cash surplus from onshore operations at RMB3.0-3.6bn.
  • SHUION 9.75 01/26/29 was issued, with SHUION 5.5 06/29/26 repayments funded by cash.

Key Policy and Economic Outlook

• Policy Easing: CMBI anticipates policy easing in 1Q26 to support the economy, focusing on the property sector through monetary and fiscal measures.
• Targeted Support: Consumption support is likely to be targeted, with subsidies for the unemployed, low-income, multi-child households, and rural social benefits.
• GDP Forecast: Full-year GDP growth is expected to slow from 5% in 2025 to 4.8% in 2026.
• Fiscal Deficit: Broad-fiscal deficit is expected to remain at 8.5% in 2026.
• Industrial Output: Industrial output growth edged up in December, but is expected to decelerate in 1Q26 due to export challenges and demand pull-forward.

Important Disclosures

• Investment Risks: There are risks involved in transacting in any securities, and the information may not be suitable for all investors.
• No Tailored Advice: CMBI does not provide individually tailored investment advice.
• Disclaimer: The report is for informational purposes only and not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.
• Conflicts of Interest: CMBI may have investment banking relationships with the issuers covered, which could affect objectivity.

Author Certification

• The author certifies that all views expressed accurately reflect personal views and that compensation is not directly or indirectly related to the views in the report.
• No trading in the covered stocks within 30 days prior to the report and 3 business days after is confirmed.
• The author has no financial interests in the companies covered in this report.

Contact Information

• Glenn Ko, CFA: (852) 3657 6235 | glennko@cmbi.com.hk
• Cyrena Ng, CPA: (852) 3900 0801 | cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk
• Yujing Zhang: (852) 3900 0830 | zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk
• Fixed Income Department: Tel: 852 3657 6235 / 852 3900 0801 | fis@cmbi.com.hk