20240222-大越期货-沥青期货早报_34页_1mb

Asphalt Futures Brief Summary (2024-02-22)

Key Market Highlights

• Supply: February 2024 domestic asphalt plan reduced by 66% year-over-year but high inventory pressure noted. Sample capacity utilization at 232%, with sample output up. Weak demand recovery due to cold weather.
• Demand: Seasonal decline, slow post-holiday bounce back. Low consumption indicated by inventory metrics. Weakness expected to persist amid economic factors.
• Profit and Basis: Significant profit deficit persists; crude oil prices offer some support.现货贴水期货 (spot below futures), negative basis.
• Inventory: High social and factory inventories, with sample and port stocks contributed to supply strain.
• Prices: Short-term trends show slight upward MA20, but 06 contract below it. Trade based improvements possible from raw material costs.

Analyst Viewpoints

• Bullish: Elevated crude oil costs provide underpinning for prices.
• Bearish: Persistently high inventories and subdued demand depress outlook.

Outlook and Risks

• Price movements influenced by supply-demand balance, with potential for change in profit margins.
• Key risks: Precipitation forecasts, oil price instability, and trajectory of asphalt-cracking profit differential.

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