2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Mexico_Arrangement_Under_the_Flexible_Credit_Line_and_Cancellation_of_the_Current_Arrangement_46页_1mb

Summary of Mexico's Arrangement Under the Flexible Credit Line and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement

Core Content

This document outlines the IMF's staff report, staff supplement, and press release on Mexico's request for a new Flexible Credit Line (FCL) arrangement and the cancellation of the previous one. It provides an overview of Mexico's economic situation in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the outlook for the economy, and the rationale for seeking a new FCL arrangement.

Main Points

Background

• Mexico had strong policy frameworks and balance sheets before the global financial crisis.
• The economy was significantly impacted by the crisis due to its close ties with the U.S.
• The exchange rate depreciated by about 30% from September 2008 to March 2009, and external spreads rose sharply.
• The authorities implemented a comprehensive policy response, including fiscal stimulus and monetary easing, to stabilize the economy.

Outlook and Near-Term Policies

• Mexico is expected to experience a cyclical recovery, with growth projected at 3.9% in 2011.
• Inflation is expected to converge towards the 3% target by mid-2011.
• The external current account deficit is projected to settle at around 1.5% of GDP during 2010–12.
• The financial system remains resilient, with banks showing improved credit growth and low non-performing loans.

Risks

• Global risks have increased since the previous FCL arrangement was approved.
• Mexico's need for external insurance has grown due to these risks and the limited room for policy maneuver.
• The adverse scenario highlights potential annual financing shortfalls of up to US$45 billion.

Flexible Credit Line (FCL)

• Mexico seeks a new two-year precautionary FCL arrangement equivalent to 1,500% of quota (about US$73 billion).
• The authorities want to cancel the current FCL arrangement approved on March 25, 2010.
• The enhanced FCL provides better access and longer tenor, which is more suitable for the current risk environment.
• The staff recommends approval of the new FCL arrangement, as Mexico meets the qualification criteria.

Fund Liquidity and Process

• The proposed FCL would have a substantial, but manageable, impact on the Fund's liquidity.
• An informal meeting was held on December 13, 2010, to consult the Executive Board on the FCL arrangement.

Key Information

Financial Indicators

• Inflation: Core inflation fell to 3.6% y/y by end-November 2010, while headline inflation was at 4.3% due to recent price increases.
• Exchange Rate: The peso appreciated by about 5% against the dollar in 2010.
• International Reserves: Increased by nearly US$16 billion during January–November 2010, largely due to Pemex oil sales and public borrowing.
• GDP Growth: Projected at 3.9% for 2011, with a moderate decline in net exports and a focus on domestic demand.

Fiscal Policy

• The 2011 budget is in line with the fiscal strategy outlined in 2009, with a small deficit under the balanced budget rule (0.5% of GDP).
• The budget includes measures to reduce the fiscal deficit, including tax reforms and spending adjustments.
• Fiscal consolidation is ongoing, with the goal of returning to a zero deficit by 2012.

Financial Market Developments

• The government bond market experienced a rally in 2010, driven partly by portfolio inflows.
• The swap curve flattened as expectations of policy hikes were postponed.
• The stock market moved in line with regional trends.

Institutional Team

• The report was prepared by the Western Hemisphere Department, in consultation with other departments.
• Approved by David J. Robinson and Aasim Husain.

Tables and Figures

• Table 1: Selected Economic, Financial, and Social Indicators, 2007–2011.

• Table 2: Financial Operations of the Public Sector, 2007–2015.

• Table 3: Summary Balance of Payments, 2007–2015.

• Table 4: External Financing Requirements and Sources, 2007–2012.

• Table 5: External Debt Sustainability Framework, 2005–2015.

• Table 6: Gross Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, 2005–2015.

• Table 7: Indicators of Fund Credit, 2010–2015.

• Table 8: Financial Soundness Indicators.

• Table 9: Comparison of Access in Fund Arrangements.

• Table 10: FCL for Mexico—Impact on GRA Finances.

• Figure 1: Evolution of the Economy, 2004–2010.

• Figure 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy.

• Figure 3: Financial Market Developments, 2008–2010.

• Figure 4: Reserve Coverage in International Perspective.

Boxes

• Box 1: The 2011 Budget Proposal outlines the fiscal strategy and measures taken to reduce the deficit.
• Box 2: An illustrative adverse scenario shows potential financing shortfalls of up to US$45 billion.

Attachments

• Letter from the Authorities: Requests renewal of the FCL arrangement.

Conclusion

Mexico's economic recovery is ongoing, but risks remain elevated due to global uncertainties. The authorities seek a new FCL arrangement to provide additional insurance against external shocks and to support their flexible exchange rate regime. The staff supports this request, as it aligns with the enhanced FCL features and qualification criteria. The new FCL would be a significant step in securing Mexico's financial stability in the face of continued global risks.