全球能源转型展望2021—全球和区域预测至2050-282页_160mb

Summary of ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK 2021

Core Insights

1. We are not meeting Paris ambitions; there is a very short window to close the gap

• Global energy-related emissions are projected to fall only by 9% by 2030, far below the goal of halving emissions by that year.
• By 2050, emissions are expected to be 45% lower than 2019 levels, still falling short of net-zero targets.
• The global average temperature increase is estimated to reach 2.3°C by 2100, exceeding the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement.
• The window for action is shrinking, and reliance on net-negative technologies in the latter half of the century is seen as high risk.

2. Electrification is surging ahead, and renewables will outcompete all other power sources

• The share of electricity in final global energy demand is set to double from 19% to 38% by 2050.
• Solar PV and wind will expand 15- and 20-fold, respectively, by 2050, becoming the dominant power sources.
• 50% of all passenger vehicle sales will be electric by 2032, with heat pumps providing 32% of heat by 2050.
• Connectivity, storage, and demand response will be critical to support the transition to renewable-based power systems.

3. Efficiency gains lead to a flattening of energy demand from the 2030s

• Energy efficiency is identified as the greatest untapped resource for climate change mitigation.
• Energy intensity (energy per dollar of GDP) is expected to improve at 2.4% per year, outpacing GDP growth.
• Efficiency gains are mainly driven by electrification and end-use improvements (e.g., better insulation).
• Despite population growth and a 111% increase in GDP, global energy demand will only grow by 8% from 2019 to 2035 and then remain flat through to 2050.

4. Fossil fuels are gradually losing position, but retain a 50% share in 2050

• Fossil fuels will still account for 50% of the global energy mix by 2050, showing the inertia of fossil energy systems.
• Coal will decrease by 62%, oil demand will halve, and natural gas will fall to 24% of global energy supply by 2050.
• CCS deployment is too slow, with only 3.6% of fossil CO₂ emissions abated in 2050.

New Insights

1. COVID-19 recovery spending is a lost opportunity

• Most stimulus packages have focused on protecting existing industries rather than transforming them.
• Only the EU has shown significant commitment to a green recovery.
• Clean energy measures account for just 2% of total fiscal support, despite the potential to accelerate the transition.

2. Variability and low power prices are not roadblocks to a renewable-based power system

• Solar + storage is emerging as a new power plant category, expected to supply 12% of grid-connected electricity by 2050.
• Power-to-X, storage, demand response, and carbon pricing will support the competitiveness of renewables.
• Grid expansion and adaptation will require USD 12 trillion in investment over the next 30 years.

3. Decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors requires greater scaling of hydrogen, e-fuels, and biofuels

• Hydrogen and e-fuels are critical for sectors like aviation, maritime, and heavy industry, which are difficult to electrify.
• Hydrogen production is expected to meet only 5% of global energy demand by 2050, far below current needs.
• Hydrogen derivatives like ammonia and synthetic jet fuel will be essential for these sectors.

4. Most hydrogen will be produced from dedicated renewables-based electrolyzers by 2050

• Green hydrogen will dominate, with 18% from grid-based electrolysis and 43% from dedicated off-grid renewables.
• Blue hydrogen will decline due to rising costs and CCS limitations, providing only 19% of energy-related hydrogen by 2050.
• Grey and brown hydrogen (from fossil fuels) will still dominate, highlighting the need for rapid decarbonization.

Key Figures and Trends

• Global final energy demand will peak around 2035 and then remain flat.
• Electricity demand will more than double by 2050, with 69% of grid-connected power coming from renewables.
• Renewables will triple from 15% to 45% of the energy mix by 2050.
• Nuclear will remain stable at 5% of the energy mix.
• Fossil fuels will decrease from 80% to 50% of the global energy mix by 2050.

Conclusion

The Energy Transition Outlook 2021 emphasizes the urgent need for more aggressive action on climate change, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors. While renewables and electrification are progressing, they alone cannot achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Hydrogen, e-fuels, and biofuels must be scaled rapidly, and policy support is essential to drive this transformation. The pandemic recovery has not significantly advanced the energy transition, and global cooperation and innovative financing are critical to closing the gap between current trends and the Paris Agreement goals.