DNV-迎接氢经济的挑战（英）-2021_22页_3mb

Summary of "Rising to the Challenge of a Hydrogen Economy"

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the emerging hydrogen economy, focusing on its potential, challenges, and the key factors that will determine its success. It outlines the expectations, challenges, and uncertainties surrounding the development of hydrogen value chains from production to consumption, based on DNV's survey of over 1,100 professionals and interviews with industry leaders.

Main Viewpoints

• Hydrogen's Growing Importance: Hydrogen is rapidly becoming a central part of the energy transition, seen as essential for achieving net-zero goals. It is no longer an outlier but a key solution for decarbonizing energy and industry.

• Hydrogen Types:

  • Green hydrogen is produced via electrolysis using zero-carbon electricity (e.g., wind, solar) and is considered the ideal long-term solution.
  • Blue hydrogen uses fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage (CCS) and could serve as a transitional option.
  • Grey and brown hydrogen are currently dominant but emit significant CO₂.

• Market Growth Expectations:

  • Hydrogen is expected to become a major revenue/spending component for many organizations.
  • By 2025, 44% of hydrogen revenue earners will derive more than 10% of their revenue from hydrogen, rising to 73% by 2030.
  • Hydrogen consumption for energy and feedstock is also expected to grow significantly.

• Key Drivers for Adoption:

  • Profitability and sustainability are the top motivators for hydrogen involvement.
  • The need to replace carbon-intensive parts of the business is a major driver.
  • 84% of respondents believe hydrogen is critical to a global low-carbon energy system.

• Challenges and Enablers:

  • Infrastructure and cost are the biggest hurdles.
  • Regulations are seen as a key enabler, with 80% of respondents emphasizing the need for effective carbon pricing.
  • Safety standards are crucial for scaling up and gaining public trust.
  • Technology innovation and standardization will be necessary to reduce costs and improve viability.

• Industry-Specific Applications:

  • The steel industry is expected to be a major consumer, with significant demand for hydrogen in the ironmaking process.
  • Hydrogen is more viable in certain applications, such as heavy industry and transport, where electrification may not be feasible.

• Collaboration and Coordination:

  • There is a need for alignment between supply and demand, with clear roadmaps from both sides.
  • Collaboration among industry players, regulators, and policymakers is essential for success.

• Regulatory and Policy Support:

  • Strong, stable, and supportive regulations are vital for hydrogen development.
  • Many countries have national hydrogen strategies and policies that are expected to drive growth.
  • China is poised to make a major push in the near future with national-level policies and infrastructure development.

Key Information

• Survey Highlights:

  • 74% of energy professionals believe the outlook for a hydrogen economy has improved significantly in the past year.
  • 67% expect this trend to continue over the next 12 months.
  • 71% believe current hydrogen ambitions underestimate practical limitations and barriers.

• Infrastructure:

  • Existing natural gas networks can be repurposed for hydrogen, offering cost savings.
  • Around 78% of respondents see repurposing as essential for a large-scale hydrogen economy.
  • Safety and standards are critical to infrastructure development.

• Cost Reduction:

  • The cost of green and blue hydrogen must decrease for widespread adoption.
  • Electrolyzer and renewable energy costs are expected to fall over the next decade.
  • Supply and demand must grow in tandem to ensure cost reductions.

• Hydrogen's Role:

  • Hydrogen is not a universal solution but is best suited for specific applications.
  • It is expected to work in synergy with electrification rather than compete with it.
  • 80% of respondents believe hydrogen and electrification will complement each other.

• Uncertainties:

  • The hydrogen economy is still in its early stages, with many technical, regulatory, and market uncertainties.
  • The steel industry, in particular, faces significant technical challenges in transitioning to hydrogen-based processes.

Conclusion

The report underscores that while the hydrogen economy is gaining momentum, it requires substantial investment, regulatory support, and technological advancements to achieve its full potential. The transition to hydrogen is seen as a critical component of the global effort to reach net-zero by 2050, with a strong emphasis on collaboration, innovation, and infrastructure development.