2024年全球氢评价（英）_295页_11mb

Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Summary

Core Content

The Global Hydrogen Review 2024, published by the International Energy Agency (IEA), provides a comprehensive analysis of hydrogen production, demand, trade, infrastructure, investment, innovation, and policy developments worldwide. The report highlights the growing importance of hydrogen in achieving global energy and climate goals, particularly through the expansion of low-emissions hydrogen production and the role of electrolysis and fossil fuels with carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS).

Key Findings

Global Hydrogen Demand

• In 2023, global hydrogen demand reached 97 million tonnes (Mt), an increase of 2.5% compared to 2022.
• Demand is primarily concentrated in the refining and chemical sectors, with most hydrogen still produced from unabated fossil fuels.
• Low-emissions hydrogen production remains minimal, with less than 1 Mt produced in 2023.
• The potential for low-emissions hydrogen production could reach 49 Mtpa by 2030, driven largely by electrolysis projects.
• Final Investment Decisions (FID) for hydrogen production have increased significantly, doubling from last year to 3.4 Mtpa, with a roughly 50% split between electrolysis and CCUS.

Hydrogen Production

• Electrolysis is the main driver of low-emissions hydrogen growth, with 520 GW of announced capacity.
• CCUS-based fossil fuel hydrogen has also gained momentum, with FID projects in North America and Europe.
• The cost of low-emissions hydrogen is expected to drop significantly by 2030, reaching USD 2–9/kg H₂, which is half of current costs.
• The cost gap with unabated fossil-based production is expected to narrow to USD 1–3/kg H₂ by 2030.
• In the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario, 5 Mtpa of low-emissions hydrogen could be produced at a cost-competitive level with fossil fuels, and up to 12 Mtpa with a USD 1.5/kg premium.

Demand Creation

• Government policies and targets for low-emissions hydrogen demand amount to around 11 Mt in 2030, but current FID production and operational capacity is only 4 Mt.
• Industrial hubs and public procurement are key strategies to stimulate demand.
• Policies such as carbon contracts for difference, aviation mandates, and shipping regulations are starting to drive action, but are still limited in scope and coverage.

Investment and Innovation

• Government investment in hydrogen RD&D has been growing since 2016, showing promising results in both supply and end-use technologies.
• Patent applications increased by 47% in 2022, indicating heightened innovation and commercial interest.
• China is leading in electrolyser manufacturing, accounting for 60% of global capacity, and is expected to further drive cost reductions through continued expansion.

Policy and Certification

• Regulatory frameworks are being developed to address GHG emissions from low-emissions hydrogen.
• The ISO methodology provides a standardised approach for assessing emissions, with a full standard expected by 2025 or 2026.
• Mutual recognition of certification schemes is being promoted, with 37 governments committing to this at COP 28.
• CertHiLAC was launched in Latin America to support regional certification.

Latin America Focus

• Latin America is well-positioned to become a major low-emissions hydrogen producer, leveraging its abundant renewable energy and decarbonised electricity mix.
• By 2030, the region could produce 7 Mtpa of hydrogen with a carbon intensity below 3 kgCO₂ eq/kg H₂, which is 3–4 times lower than using unabated natural gas.
• Infrastructure development, including power transmission, is crucial to support future production.
• Industrial applications such as refining and ammonia production are currently the main drivers of demand.
• Emerging applications in steel, shipping, and aviation are expected to grow as the market develops.

Recommendations

• Accelerate demand creation by leveraging industrial hubs and public procurement.
• Support project developers to scale up production and reduce costs through grants, subsidies, loan guarantees, and public equity investments.
• Strengthen regulation and certification to ensure transparency and interoperability across regions.
• Identify and develop hydrogen infrastructure to avoid delays and support market growth.
• Support emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) by providing targeted financial assistance to address financing barriers and unlock low-cost, low-emissions hydrogen potential.

Key Statistics

Conclusion

The Global Hydrogen Review 2024 highlights the notable progress in the hydrogen sector, particularly in low-emissions hydrogen production and electrolysis. However, the sector still faces significant challenges, including unclear demand signals, financing hurdles, and regulatory inconsistencies. The report underscores the importance of policy support, investment, and infrastructure development to ensure hydrogen's role in the transition to a low-carbon economy. Latin America is identified as a key region with high potential for low-emissions hydrogen, provided it can overcome market and policy barriers.