德银-全球-钢材行业-钢材价格追踪：钢材价格稳定，投入要素价格趋于上涨-20171206-22页_1mb
报告摘要
Steel Industry Summary: Europe and Global Markets (December 6, 2017)
Core Content Overview
This report provides an analysis of the steel industry, focusing on European and global steel prices, valuations, and market dynamics as of December 6, 2017. It highlights key price movements, valuation methodologies, and risks associated with the sector, with a particular emphasis on two major European steel companies: ArcelorMittal (MT.AS) and Voestalpine (VOES.VI).
Key Market Trends
Hot Rolled Coil (HRC)
- Northern Europe: Prices rose to USD634 (EUR534) last week, with a USD1 increase in the previous week and USD6 over the past month. Prices are up USD58 year-to-date.
- Southern Europe: Prices increased to USD598 (EUR503), with a USD8 rise last week. Prices fell USD24 over the past three months.
- United States: Prices dropped USD4 last week to USD685 (EUR576), with a USD40 increase year-to-date.
- Chinese Exports: Prices increased USD1 to USD547, with a USD34 decrease over the past three months.
Plate
- Northern Europe: Prices increased to USD683 (EUR575), up USD5 last week and USD14 over the past month.
- Southern Europe: Prices dropped USD12 to USD621, with a USD24 decrease in the past month.
- United States: Prices remained stable at USD759 (EUR648), with a USD110 increase year-to-date.
Rebar
- Northern Europe: Prices rose USD5 to USD661 (EUR557), up USD17 year-to-date.
- Southern Europe: Prices were stable at USD542 (EUR463), with a USD2 increase in the past three months.
- United States: Prices were stable at USD617 (EUR520), with a USD33 increase year-to-date.
Iron Ore
- Fines 62% Fe: Prices rose USD3/dmt to USD71/dmt, with a USD2 decrease over the past three months.
- Fines 58% Fe: Prices increased USD2/dmt to USD49/dmt, up USD6 year-to-date.
- Premium Coking Coal (Australian Exports): Prices increased USD11 to USD219, up USD10 in euro terms.
Scrap
- European prices: Increased USD15 to USD305/t, with a USD19 expected decrease in Q4.
- Turkish prices: Rose USD13 to USD328/t, up USD27 over the past three months.
Company Valuation and Investment Recommendations
ArcelorMittal (MT.AS)
- Current Price: EUR26.20
- Target Price: EUR33
- Valuation: Valued using a blend of forward EBITDA (6.0x 2018E) and DCF (7.9% WACC, 2% terminal growth).
- FCF Yield: 7-12% (strong cash flow).
- Key Risks: Weaker steel prices, demand divergence, raw material cost increases, trade regulations, FX fluctuations.
Voestalpine (VOES.VI)
- Current Price: EUR49.22
- Target Price: EUR54
- Valuation: DCF-based with a WACC of 7.7% and a terminal growth rate of 1.0%.
- FCF Yield: 9-10% (strong underlying cash flow).
- Key Risks: Lower steel prices/demand, higher raw material costs, execution risks for growth projects, FX risks.
Industry Valuation Metrics
| Metric | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018E | 2019E | 2020E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (DB) | 11.5 | 11.7 | 11.5 | 11.8 | 10.6 | 9.4 |
| P/E (Reported) | 10.6 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 10.6 | 9.4 |
| P/BV | 1.31 | 1.03 | 1.20 | 1.44 | 1.30 | 1.17 |
| FCF Yield (%) | 1.6 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 |
| Dividend Yield (%) | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| EV/Sales | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 5.3 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.5 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 8.4 |
Financial Highlights (Voestalpine)
| Metric | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018E | 2019E | 2020E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales Revenue (EURm) | 11,190 | 11,069 | 11,294 | 12,507 | 12,760 | 13,251 |
| Gross Profit (EURm) | 2,931 | 3,210 | 3,266 | 3,514 | 3,639 | 3,837 |
| EBITDA (EURm) | 1,485 | 1,509 | 1,557 | 1,932 | 2,025 | 2,161 |
| EBIT (EURm) | 841 | 771 | 823 | 1,147 | 1,231 | 1,367 |
| Net Profit (EURm) | 536 | 585 | 497 | 728 | 816 | 918 |
| Free Cash Flow (EURm) | 92 | 15 | 98 | 301 | 1,094 | 1,666 |
Risks and Outlook
Key Risks for the Steel Sector
- Global economic growth below expectations.
- Lower-than-expected steel prices.
- Rising raw material and operating costs.
- Political influence in steel trade.
- Delays in expansion projects.
- M&A valuation and integration risks.
Outlook
- Steel prices are expected to fall due to fading cost support.
- Volatility in steel equities is driven by macroeconomic conditions and commodity price movements.
- Current spot conditions suggest potential for significant earnings upgrades.
- The steel sector faces limited growth prospects, reflected in low terminal growth assumptions.
Summary of Price Movements
- HRC: Southern Europe prices rose, while Northern Europe prices remained stable.
- CRC: Prices in Southern Europe increased, while US prices were stable.
- HDG: Prices in Northern Europe fell, while Southern Europe prices were stable.
- Plate: Prices in Northern Europe rose, while Southern Europe prices fell.
- Rebar: Prices in Northern Europe rose, while Southern Europe prices were stable.
- Iron Ore: Prices for 62% Fe and 58% Fe rose, with coking coal showing significant growth.
- Scrap: European and Turkish prices increased, with European prices expected to fall in Q4.
Conclusion
The steel industry in Europe and globally showed mixed price trends in November and December 2017, with some products experiencing price increases while others declined. ArcelorMittal and Voestalpine are highlighted as top picks due to their strong cash flow, valuation, and potential for earnings upgrades. Despite current strong spot conditions, the outlook for steel prices remains cautious due to macroeconomic and cost-related risks. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring raw material costs, demand fluctuations, and trade policies as key drivers of future performance.
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