年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Turkey_Fiscal_Transparency_Evaluation_79页_2mb

Summary of Fiscal Transparency Evaluation on Turkey

Core Content

This report, prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) in May 2016, evaluates Turkey's fiscal transparency practices in line with the 2014 version of the IMF's Fiscal Transparency Code (FTC). The evaluation was conducted following a request from the Turkish Treasury and highlights progress made over the past 15 years, as well as areas for further improvement.

Main Points

1. Fiscal Reporting

• Coverage: Turkey has expanded the scope of fiscal reporting to include consolidated general government, financial and nonfinancial assets and liabilities, and a comprehensive balance sheet. However, it still excludes 468 public corporations, which account for 12.6% of GDP in net expenditure, and some quasi-fiscal activities.
• Frequency and Timeliness: Reporting has improved in terms of frequency and timeliness, with data now compiled and disseminated by a single agency (Muhasebat) using an integrated accounting system.
• Quality and Accessibility: Fiscal reports are now more detailed and reliable, and follow international standards, particularly the Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFSM) and ESA classifications.
• Integrity: There is a need for greater consistency and transparency in reporting, especially in reconciling key fiscal aggregates and disclosing historical data revisions.

2. Fiscal Forecasting and Budgeting

• Comprehensiveness: Budgets now cover a broader range of government spending and include detailed three-year economic and fiscal projections.
• Orderliness: The budget process is more structured, with the budget and related documents submitted to the Plan and Budget Committee in early September, reducing scrutiny.
• Policy Orientation: Budgets are increasingly performance-oriented, but they remain largely administrative and input-based, making it difficult to link them to policy priorities.
• Credibility: Official forecasts have shown an optimistic bias, overestimating GDP growth and underestimating inflation. They are not compared with independent forecasts or reconciled with previous estimates.

3. Fiscal Risk Analysis and Management

• Risk Disclosure: Turkey has improved its fiscal risk management, but there is still a lack of transparency in publishing fiscal risk registers, alternative scenarios, and long-term projections.
• Risk Management: Risks related to the financial sector, public-private partnerships (PPPs), and public corporations are not fully integrated into the monitoring system.
• Fiscal Coordination: There is a need for better coordination and oversight of subnational governments, as well as improved reporting on the performance of individual municipalities.

Key Recommendations

The report proposes 10 recommendations to enhance fiscal transparency:

1. Expand institutional coverage of fiscal reports to include all public corporations and provide an overview of the entire public sector.
2. Improve balance sheet coverage by reflecting full market value of government assets, including land, subsoil, PPPs, and pension liabilities.
3. Enhance consistency and integrity of fiscal reporting by harmonizing definitions, including reconciliations, and disclosing historical data revisions.
4. Revise the PFMCL timetable to allow for adequate parliamentary and public scrutiny of fiscal documents.
5. Promote policy-based budgeting by classifying and appropriating expenditure by programs and economic categories, and publishing a citizen's budget.
6. Require parliamentary approval for significant in-year changes to budgeted expenditure.
7. Improve forecast accountability by comparing official forecasts with independent ones and explaining discrepancies.
8. Publish a fiscal risk statement including alternative scenarios, specific risks, and long-term projections.
9. Strengthen PPP oversight by evaluating all major projects, setting exposure limits, and disclosing costs and cash flows.
10. Improve subnational oversight by regularly reporting on the finances of individual municipalities and local governments.

Immediate Priorities

Recommendations 1.1, 2.1, and 3.2 are marked as immediate priorities due to the significant unreported fiscal activity in these areas.

Key Findings

• The public sector accounts for 50.4% of GDP in revenues and 51.3% in expenditures, with an overall deficit of 0.9% of GDP.
• The public sector has an extensive balance sheet, with assets of 209.8% of GDP (141.5% nonfinancial and 68.3% financial), and liabilities of 110.4% of GDP (22.3% civil service pension liabilities).
• Macroeconomic volatility is the largest source of fiscal risk, with a two-standard deviation adverse GDP shock worsening the primary balance by 2% and increasing general government debt by 7.5% of GDP after two years.
• Specific fiscal risks include:
  • 4.5% of GDP in direct exposure (equity in state-owned banks)
  • 45% of GDP in contingent exposure (uninsured commercial deposits)
  • 5.6% of GDP in PPP liabilities
  • 1.4% of GDP in Treasury-guaranteed debt
  • 0.5% annualized costs from natural disasters
• Long-term demographic pressures are projected to increase government expenditure by 5.9% of GDP between 2015 and 2050.

Conclusion

Turkey has made substantial progress in fiscal transparency over the past 15 years, meeting 10 basic, 13 good, and 6 advanced principles of the IMF's Fiscal Transparency Code. However, there are still important gaps in institutional coverage, risk disclosure, and policy orientation of fiscal documents. Implementing the recommendations would bring Turkey closer to the transparency standards of other countries and improve the public's understanding of the government's fiscal position and risks.