2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Peru_Fiscal_Transparency_Evaluation_98页_1mb

Fiscal Transparency Evaluation of Peru (October 2015)

Core Content

This report, prepared by the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department, evaluates Peru's fiscal transparency practices in light of the IMF's Fiscal Transparency Code (FTC), including a pilot assessment of resource revenue management under the new draft pillar introduced in December 2014. The evaluation is based on information available up to February 2015.

Peru has made significant progress in improving its macro-fiscal framework and enhancing fiscal transparency. In 2013, the country adopted the Fiscal Responsibility and Transparency Law (FRTL), which became effective in January 2015. The law includes spending rules for each level of government based on a structural balance target, mandates the creation of an independent fiscal council, and requires the reporting of explicit contingent liabilities. Since 2007, the government has implemented a performance-based budgeting system and introduced a medium-term expenditure framework in 2012.

Main Views

1. Fiscal Reporting

• Coverage: Peru provides extensive fiscal information, including financial statements covering the entire public sector.
• Frequency and Timeliness: Fiscal reports are prepared frequently and in a timely manner.
• Quality: Information is classified according to international standards, and financial statements are audited by an independent audit institution.
• Integrity: Compliance with EITI standards ensures the integrity of revenue reporting and company compliance.
• Challenges:
  • Limited internal consistency checks of fiscal data.
  • Sub-national government data quality is not of the highest standard, with several adverse audit opinions.
  • Some items (e.g., subsoil assets, accounts payable, pension liabilities) are not recorded or need valuation updates.
  • Differences in institutional subsector definitions across reports reduce comparability.
• Recommendations:
  • Improve internal consistency checks and update valuation methods.
  • Harmonize institutional coverage and subsector definitions.
  • Strengthen internal controls and external audit functions.
  • Expand the coverage of fiscal reports to include unrecorded assets and liabilities.

2. Fiscal Forecasting and Budgeting

• Comprehensiveness: The budget covers the general government, with some exceptions.
• Orderliness: There is a solid fiscal framework with clear policy objectives.
• Policy Orientation: Fiscal policy objectives are embedded in numerical and time-bound fiscal rules.
• Credibility: Medium-term macroeconomic and fiscal projections are detailed and comprehensive.
• Challenges:
  • Automatic incremental changes to the initial budget weaken the link between macro-fiscal objectives and annual planning.
  • Medium-term budget planning is still in early stages.
  • No independent evaluation of fiscal performance.
• Recommendations:
  • Preserve fiscal rule stability.
  • Reduce automatic supplementary appropriations.
  • Integrate macro-fiscal planning and medium-term expenditure planning into a coherent framework.
  • Improve reconciliation of forecasts with actual outcomes.
  • Operationalize the independent fiscal council.

3. Fiscal Risk Analysis and Management

• Disclosure and Analysis: Fiscal risk analysis is in its infancy.
• Risk Management: The government lacks a comprehensive fiscal risk report that captures the correlation between different risks.
• Fiscal Coordination: There is no systematic long-term focus on public finances despite the importance of resource revenue.
• Challenges:
  • Fiscal forecasts do not include detailed analysis of macroeconomic scenarios and resource revenue uncertainty.
  • No public fiscal risk statement covering major risks such as court litigations, loan guarantees, PPPs, environmental disasters, and financial sector exposure.
  • Limited reporting on government guarantees and their probability of being called.
  • Weak integration of social and environmental risk analysis into fiscal forecasting.
• Recommendations:
  • Publish annual fiscal risk statements.
  • Strengthen reporting of guarantees, including non-financial ones.
  • Improve reporting of fiscal risks from PPPs.
  • Conduct long-term sustainability analysis of natural resource reserves.

4. Resource Revenue Management

• Legal and Fiscal Regime: Clear and comprehensive legal and fiscal frameworks for managing resource revenue.
• Disclosure: Open and competitive rights allocation processes are in place.
• Compliance: Compliance with EITI standards ensures integrity in revenue reporting.
• Challenges:
  • Limited coordination between sector ministries and fiscal policymakers.
  • Automatic increases to initial budget allocations based on cash balances misalign budget plans with actual resource revenue use.
  • Lack of independent verification mechanisms for production volumes and prices.
  • Fragmentation in resource allocation and use of off-budget accounts and cash balances hampers monitoring.
• Recommendations:
  • Develop clear audit procedures for volume and price measurement, especially in the mining sector.
  • Integrate resource revenue flows into budget and fiscal reports.
  • Report periodically on the use of resource revenue against sub-national objectives.
  • Incorporate operational, social, and environmental risk analysis into fiscal forecasting.

Key Information

• Fiscal Transparency Code (FTC): Peru's practices meet most of the principles at a good or advanced level, but there are areas needing improvement.
• Public Sector Financial Overview (2013):
  • Net Worth: 32.6% of GDP, significantly higher than currently reported.
  • Negative Financial Worth: -34.4% of GDP, mainly due to debt securities, loans, and pension liabilities.
• Fiscal Reporting Practices: While comprehensive, lack of internal consistency checks and sub-national data quality issues remain.
• Fiscal Forecasting and Budgeting: Improved, but needs stronger integration of macro-fiscal and medium-term planning.
• Fiscal Risk Management: In early stages; requires more detailed analysis and reporting.
• Resource Revenue Management: Strong legal and fiscal regime, but needs better coordination and transparency in revenue use and risk analysis.

Summary of Recommendations