2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Romania_Fiscal_Transparency_Evaluation_73页_978kb

Fiscal Transparency Evaluation of Romania

Core Content

This report is a Fiscal Transparency Evaluation (FTE) of Romania conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2014. It assesses Romania's fiscal reporting, forecasting, budgeting, and fiscal risk analysis and management practices against the IMF's Fiscal Transparency Code (FTC). The evaluation was based on information available up to February 2015.

Main Findings

1. Fiscal Reporting

Romania has made significant progress in fiscal reporting since 2010, particularly in the areas of coverage, classification, and integrity of fiscal data. However, there are notable issues:

• Coverage: Romania covers the general government sector comprehensively, including state institutions, social security funds, and sub-national governments. However, public corporations (both nonfinancial and financial) are not included in any consolidated fiscal report.
• Frequency and Timeliness: The government produces monthly cash-based budget execution reports and annual partial accrual-based fiscal statistics, which are generally timely.
• Quality and Consistency: The quality of fiscal reports is moderate. While some reports follow international standards, others lack consistency and transparency, particularly in the presentation of financial statements.
• Integrity: Fiscal statistics are generally reliable, but there are gaps in the valuation of assets and liabilities, especially regarding future pension liabilities.

Conclusion: Romania is rated as "good" or "advanced" in 8 out of 11 dimensions of fiscal reporting, but it remains "basic" in several areas due to fragmentation and incomplete coverage.

2. Fiscal Forecasting and Budgeting

Romania has improved its macroeconomic forecasting and medium-term budget framework. It has adopted a Fiscal Responsibility Law (FRL) and established an independent Fiscal Council. These reforms have enhanced the credibility and policy orientation of its fiscal practices.

• Comprehensiveness of Budget Documentation: Budget documentation is largely comprehensive, but there are areas for improvement, particularly in the coverage of public investments and the development of citizen budgets.
• Orderliness and Policy Orientation: The budget process is orderly and increasingly policy-oriented.
• Credibility of Forecasts: Forecasts and budgets are credible, though there is room for better transparency and consistency in reporting.

Conclusion: Romania is rated as "good" or "advanced" in most areas of fiscal forecasting and budgeting, but some aspects remain at the "basic" level.

3. Fiscal Risk Analysis and Management

Romania has made strides in identifying and reporting fiscal risks, especially those related to government guarantees and sub-national governments. However, it scores less well in reporting on financial sector exposure, environmental risks, and natural resources.

• Risk Analysis: The country has advanced mechanisms for analyzing fiscal risks, particularly in the context of government guarantees and sub-national fiscal risks.
• Risk Management: While risk management practices are improving, they are not yet fully aligned with international standards.

Conclusion: Romania is rated as "advanced" or "good" in some fiscal risk dimensions, but it scores "basic" in others, indicating the need for further improvements.

Key Recommendations

The report makes seven key recommendations to enhance fiscal transparency:

1. Reduce Fragmentation: Expand institutional coverage to include the wider public sector, particularly public corporations.
2. Improve Quality and Timeliness: Enhance the timeliness, quality, and integrity of fiscal reports by publishing reconciliations between cash and accrual-based reports, enforcing strict timelines, and ensuring compliance with international accounting standards.
3. Allow Scrutiny Time: Ensure parliamentary approval procedures are streamlined and that deadlines for budget submission are strictly observed.
4. Increase Forecast Transparency: Publish more detailed macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts and reconcile changes in successive medium-term forecasts.
5. Enhance Budget Documentation: Include multi-annual costs of public investments and details of government performance against fiscal objectives.
6. Expand Fiscal Risk Reporting: Incorporate sensitivity analysis of fiscal position to macroeconomic assumptions, and include more information on guarantees and PPPs.
7. Improve Long-Term Projections: Expand long-term fiscal projections to cover all main fiscal aggregates.

Key Information

• Fiscal Transparency Code (FTC): Romania performs well in many areas, with 15 dimensions rated "good" or "advanced" and 5 rated "not met."
• Public Sector Coverage: The general government sector is well-covered, but public corporations, including the Central Bank, are excluded from consolidated reports.
• Public Sector Expenditure: Public corporations account for 10% of GDP in expenditure and 9.9% of GDP in net worth.
• Debt and Net Worth: Romania's public sector has a gross debt of 109.4% of GDP, with a significant portion attributed to unfunded pension liabilities (29% of GDP).
• Accounting Standards: While some reports follow international standards (e.g., ESA95, IPSAS), there is still inconsistency and a lack of comprehensive financial statements.

Conclusion

Romania has made substantial progress in fiscal transparency since 2010, but there are still areas needing improvement, particularly in institutional coverage, reporting consistency, and fiscal risk analysis. The report highlights the importance of aligning fiscal practices with international standards and enhancing the quality and transparency of financial and fiscal information to support better decision-making.