2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Uganda_Fiscal_Transparency_Evaluation_58页_1mb

Uganda Fiscal Transparency Evaluation Summary

Core Content

This report is a Fiscal Transparency Evaluation (FTE) of Uganda, conducted by an IMF staff team in May 2016. It assesses Uganda's fiscal reporting, forecasting, and risk management practices against the standards of the IMF's Fiscal Transparency Code (2014 version). The evaluation is part of the East African Community (EAC) fiscal surveillance action plan, aimed at harmonizing public financial management and fiscal reporting ahead of the target date for the East African Monetary Union (EAMU) by 2024.

Main Points

Fiscal Reporting

• Coverage of Fiscal Reports:

  • Fiscal reports in Uganda cover only about 77% of public sector expenditure, excluding the full revenues and expenditures of 63 extra-budgetary units and 32 public corporations.
  • The public sector includes 523 entities, with 491 classified as general government and 32 as public corporations.
  • The current coverage of fiscal reports is 95.7% of central government, 99.2% of general government, and about 81.4% of public sector expenditures.

• Quality of Fiscal Reports:

  • Fiscal reports are generally of good quality, with detailed financial and non-financial performance data.
  • However, the completeness of data is lacking, particularly regarding the government's future pension obligations, which are estimated at 22% of GDP and not disclosed.
  • Tax expenditures are not fully covered in the list of tax exemptions.

• Integrity of Fiscal Reports:

  • Annual financial statements are audited and published within six months of the end of the fiscal year.
  • There is a need to improve the comparability of fiscal data with other reports and to publish reconciled fiscal data.

• Recommendations:

  • Expand data collection to cover extra-budgetary units and local governments.
  • Publish comprehensive reports on tax expenditures and annual financial statements.
  • Incorporate balance sheets into fiscal reporting and include liabilities and non-financial assets.

Fiscal Forecasting and Budgeting

• Comprehensiveness:

  • Budget documents include forecasts of macroeconomic variables, medium-term revenue and expenditure projections, and plans for the budget year.
  • However, the budget does not include a complete list of all entities and their financial flows.

• Orderliness:

  • There are difficulties in tracking in-year changes to the budget, which undermine the credibility of the budget process.
  • Expenditure reductions and reallocations (averaging over 6% of total expenditure) are not subject to prior parliamentary approval.

• Policy Orientation:

  • The budget documents set out the government's main policy objectives and summarize past performance.
  • The government is developing a Charter for Fiscal Responsibility, which will outline medium-term fiscal objectives and related reporting requirements.

• Credibility:

  • The budget process lacks transparency in the publication of in-year changes and reallocations.
  • There is a need to improve the timeliness of budget documents and the frequency of in-year reporting.

• Recommendations:

  • Provide clear and timely information on in-year changes to budget plans.
  • Publish a summary of in-year changes to expenditure and revenue plans by budget unit shortly after they are agreed.
  • Include the information in the subsequent semi-annual execution report.
  • Regularly report on the impact of proposed changes in revenue and expenditure, and on measures to meet fiscal policy objectives.

Fiscal Risks

• Disclosure and Analysis:

  • The government has started to publish reports on fiscal risks, including a summary fiscal risk statement for the first time in 2017.
  • However, the information is scattered, and the analysis is not comprehensive enough.
  • Key risks such as the sustainability of the civil service pension scheme and management of public assets and liabilities are not covered.

• Risk Management:

  • There is no formal mechanism for managing fiscal risks through the budget process.
  • The government has not yet incorporated provisions for contingencies in the budget.

• Coordination:

  • The government is working on a program for large infrastructure projects, including public-private partnerships (PPPs), which could be sources of fiscal risk.
  • There is a need for better coordination in the management of fiscal risks, especially with regard to PPPs and natural resources.

• Recommendations:

  • Enhance the fiscal risk statement by including probabilistic forecasts of fiscal outcomes.
  • Improve the reporting of specific fiscal risks and conduct long-term fiscal sustainability analysis.
  • Implement the PFMA (2015) by including a contingency in the budget.
  • Regularly report estimates of oil resources under different scenarios.
  • Publish consolidated reports on the financial performance and position of public corporations and local governments.

Key Information

• Fiscal Transparency Code: Uganda meets at least the standard of good or advanced practice in 13 of the 36 dimensions of the first three pillars of the Fiscal Transparency Code, while 23 dimensions are scored as basic or not met.
• Oil Revenue: Uganda is expected to gain new revenues from oil starting in 2020, estimated at up to 3% of GDP at peak production. However, the volatility and exhaustibility of these revenues pose challenges.
• EAMU Protocol: Uganda is a signatory to the EAMU Protocol, which requires regular fiscal assessments against convergence criteria and the publication of an annual fiscal risk statement.
• PPPs: The government is developing processes to ensure that only growth-enhancing projects are included in the Public Investment Plan and the medium-term expenditure framework.
• Fiscal Statistics: Monthly financial statistics are published for the BCG, while local governments publish annually. These statistics are not fully consolidated or reconciled with other reports.

Conclusion

Improving fiscal transparency in Uganda is crucial for better fiscal management and governance. The government has made progress in some areas but still needs to address significant gaps in coverage, quality, and reliability of fiscal information. By enhancing transparency and incorporating more comprehensive risk management practices, Uganda can improve its fiscal strategy and strengthen accountability and oversight.