非洲电力部门_可再生能源规划和前景（英文版）_42页_1mb

Africa Power Sector: Planning and Prospects for Renewable Energy

Core Content

This synthesis report presents IRENA's first systematic assessment of the prospects for renewable energy deployment in the African power sector by 2030. It outlines the potential, cost, and investment needs for renewable energy across five major regions of Africa: North, West, Central, East, and Southern Africa. The report also discusses the use of the SPLAT (System Planning Test) model and its role in supporting policy-making and planning for renewable energy integration.

Main Views

IRENA emphasizes the importance of renewable energy in Africa's power sector due to its abundant resources and potential to contribute to sustainable development and energy security. The report highlights the following key points:

• Renewable Energy Resources: Africa has significant potential for solar, wind, hydro, biomass, and geothermal energy.
• Cost Trends: Renewable energy costs are declining, making them increasingly viable for investment.
• Policy and Planning: Effective planning and policy support are crucial for the successful deployment of renewable energy.
• Regional Cooperation: Cross-border grid connections and regional power pools play a vital role in energy planning and infrastructure development.
• Modelling Tools: The SPLAT model is used to simulate different scenarios and assess investment needs and outcomes.

Key Information

Renewable Energy Resources

• Solar PV: The continent has a technical potential of 300,000 GW, with some countries having up to tens of thousands of GW.
• Wind: The total technical potential is above 7,000 GW, with high-quality wind resources (capacity factor >40%) found in only half of the countries.
• Hydro: Installed capacity as of 2011 was 26 GW, with another 20 GW under construction. Additional capacity of 80 GW is planned.
• Biomass: Woody biomass and sugarcane are the main sources, with potential for 12 GW to 20 GW of power generation.
• Geothermal and CSP: Geothermal and concentrated solar power (CSP) also have significant potential, though some regions lack CSP potential.

Renewable Generation Cost Prospects

• IRENA's renewable-energy costing database includes data from over 9,000 utility-scale projects.
• Recent cost reductions in renewable infrastructure underscore the need for active policy support.
• Lowering transportation and logistics costs through streamlined regulations and tax regimes can further reduce investment costs.

Regional Assessments

IRENA conducted five regional assessments, each tailored to the power pools of the respective regions:

• West Africa: Final electricity demand by country and installed capacity by source under the renewable-promotion scenario.
• Southern Africa: Similar analysis with specific emphasis on regional master plans and economic implications.
• East Africa: Includes regional energy resources and the impact of cross-border projects.
• Central Africa: Focuses on power generation and transmission needs under different scenarios.
• North Africa: Highlights the role of solar and wind in the energy mix and the DIVE scenario.

SPLAT Model

• The SPLAT model is a least-cost capacity expansion model used to simulate the power sector under different policy assumptions.
• It allows for structured analysis of various scenarios and helps in understanding the implications of renewable deployment.
• The model is based on the MESSAGE platform, which is flexible and suitable for long-term energy planning.

Investment Needs

• By 2030, Africa is expected to need new generation capacity of 430 GW to 620 GW.
• Investment needs for new generation capacity between 2015 and 2030 range from USD 420 billion to USD 800 billion.
• Transmission and distribution (T&D) investment needs range from USD 270 billion to USD 400 billion.
• Investment needs under renewable-promotion scenarios are higher than under renewable-limited scenarios.

Regional Definitions and Duplications

• Some countries are part of multiple power pools, which is reflected in the SPLAT model.
• Table 2 lists the countries included in more than one SPLAT model.

Conclusion

The report provides a comprehensive overview of renewable energy's potential in Africa, emphasizing the need for enhanced planning tools, policy support, and regional cooperation to achieve sustainable energy access and development. It also outlines the importance of using models like SPLAT to guide investment decisions and long-term planning.