IRENA-可再生能源的规划和前景_中部非洲（英）-2025.1_112页_13mb

报告摘要

IRENA Regional Analysis: Renewable Power Planning for Central Africa

Executive Summary

IRENA conducted a comprehensive analysis of Central Africa's renewable power sector using the SPLAT-Africa model. The region faces significant electricity demand growth with only about 50% access currently. Key findings include:

Renewables (especially hydropower) dominate regional power generation and trade expansion
Hydropower maintains its position as the primary energy source across all scenarios
Solar PV and wind capacity expands significantly by 2040
Fossil fuel share decreases to below 5% of production
Cross-border interconnection grows substantially, enhancing trade potential
System costs vary greatly depending on demand projections and interconnection levels

Methodology

The analysis used IRENA's SPLAT-MESSAGE model with key assumptions:

10% real discount rate
2019 USD monetary unit
Three seasons and twelve daily time slices for demand modeling
Minimum 10% reserve margin constraint
Variable capacity credit based on technology type

Scenarios

The modeling explored multiple scenarios varying by:

Demand projections
Hydropower development (delays/dry years)
Interconnector capacity
Export potential
Fossil fuel deployment

Capacity and Generation

Across all scenarios:

Renewables meet majority of demand
Hydropower dominates (70%+ share)
Solar PV grows rapidly due to cost reductions
Wind capacity expands in suitable locations
Battery storage complements variable renewables
Total capacity requirements double by 2040 in most scenarios

Cross-Border Trade

Interconnection capacity expands over ten-fold to ~10 GW by mid-2030s
Major export routes developed to southern and western Africa
Countries like Gabon and Cameroon become transit hubs
Trade significantly impacts system costs and emissions

System Costs

Cumulative costs range from $97B to $145B (2022-2040)
High-demand scenarios drive 48% higher costs
Intercontinental interconnection substantially reduces costs
Renewables investments lower overall system costs

Grand Inga Impact

The Grand Inga project:

Drives major regional capacity and trade expansion
Blocks about 13 GW of interconnector capacity without development
Results differ by up to $40B in CAPP region costs
Replacement by solar and wind possible by 2030s

Conclusions

The analysis shows renewables should form the backbone of Central Africa's power sector development. Effective interconnector planning is crucial for cost optimization and emissions reduction. The findings support national and regional dialogue on renewable energy targets and master plan development.

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