2023-01-23-IRENA-可再生能源的规划和前景_北非（英）_94页_3mb

Summary of "Planning and Prospects for Renewable Power: North Africa"

Core Content

This report, published by IRENA in 2023, examines the current and future electricity generation and consumption trends in North Africa, focusing on the transition to renewable energy sources. It presents four scenarios for the region's power system expansion up to 2040, analyzing the potential for solar and wind power, the role of energy storage, and the impact of green hydrogen production on the power system and regional energy trade.

Main Points

1. Regional Overview and Key Data

• Energy Supply Structure: North Africa's primary energy supply is dominated by fossil fuels (natural gas, oil, and coal in Morocco), accounting for 95% of total primary energy supply in 2019.
• Electricity Access: Electricity access is high across the region (99%), with Mauritania being an exception, having increased from 34% in 2010 to 47% in 2020.
• Electricity Intensity: The electricity intensity (electricity demand/GDP) is increasing in Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia, indicating a growing reliance on electricity. In contrast, Algeria and Libya are showing a more balanced use of electricity and other fuels.
• Electricity Demand Growth: Electricity demand in North Africa has more than doubled from 140 TWh to 367 TWh between 2000 and 2019, necessitating substantial investments in the power sector.
• Installed Capacity: In 2020, the region's installed power generation capacity was approximately 113 GW, with natural gas being the dominant fuel (76% of total generation).
• Renewable Energy Contribution: Renewable energy, particularly solar and wind, has seen growth in the past five years. Non-hydro renewables now contribute about 3% of total power generation, equivalent to 10 TWh.

2. Scenarios for Power System Expansion

• SPLAT-N Model: The report uses the SPLAT-N (System Planning Test Model for North Africa) to simulate capacity expansion scenarios, incorporating data from national energy plans and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
• Four Scenarios:
  • Planned Scenario: Based on current commitments and projects.
  • Transition Scenarios: Three variations with different assumptions about fossil fuel investment, storage, and hydrogen production.
• Key Scenario Outcomes:
  • Transition Scenarios: If fossil fuel investments are halted, solar and wind power would dominate capacity expansion, leading to lower costs and reduced emissions.
  • Storage and Hydrogen: Battery storage and green hydrogen production help integrate variable renewable energy (VRE) and reduce the need for additional interconnectivity, but lower the demand for concentrated solar power (CSP).
  • Cost Efficiency: The integration of VRE with storage and hydrogen can significantly lower unit generation costs, especially in the Transition + Batteries + H₂ scenario.
  • Hydrogen Export Potential: Green hydrogen production could become a key export for North Africa, especially to Europe, and could lower electricity generation costs by up to 50%.
  • Emission Reduction: The transition scenarios could reduce CO₂ emissions by up to 75% by 2040 compared to 2020 levels.

Key Information

• Fossil Fuel Vulnerability: North African countries are heavily reliant on fossil fuels, making them vulnerable to global price fluctuations and straining national budgets through subsidies.
• Renewable Expansion: Solar and wind power are expanding and becoming more cost-effective, offering a viable alternative to fossil fuels.
• Interconnectivity: Increased use of storage and hydrogen reduces the need for cross-border interconnectivity, though some trade flows (e.g., Morocco to Spain, Tunisia to Italy) are still significant.
• Energy Transition Pathways: The report highlights the importance of transitioning to renewable energy to reduce emissions, lower costs, and provide flexibility in fossil fuel use.
• Regional Cooperation: The report is part of IRENA's efforts to support the development of the African Continental Power Systems Master Plan (CMP), emphasizing the need for regional collaboration.

Conclusion

IRENA's report underscores the potential for North Africa to transition to a more sustainable and cost-effective electricity system by expanding solar and wind power, deploying storage solutions, and leveraging green hydrogen for export. This transition would not only reduce the region's dependence on fossil fuels but also significantly cut greenhouse gas emissions and lower electricity generation costs. The findings suggest that a large-scale shift to variable renewable energy, supported by modern storage and hydrogen technologies, could be a viable and economically beneficial pathway for the region's future energy needs.