2025-01-19-IRENA-可再生能源的规划和前景_中部非洲（英）_112页_13mb

Analysis and Summary

# Planning and Prospects for Renewable Power: Central Africa

## Report Background
- **Objective**: To perform a consolidated regional analysis of potential scenarios for long-term power sector development.
- **Context**: Supports the development of Central Africa’s first official regional power sector masterplan.
- **Programme**: IRENA-CAPP Regional Modelling Analysis & Planning Support Programme (2020–2023) provided training and insights.

## Key Characteristics of the Regional Power Sector Landscape
1. **Electricity Access**: Remains low (e.g., <20% in four countries, <50% in seven of eleven). Demand growth potential is enormous, with a projected doubling by 2040 under reference projections, or nearly 350% under ambitious AU Agenda 2063 aspirations.
2. **Power Supply Mix**: Hydropower dominates (>75% in the CAPP region), with major projects like Grand Inga (20 GW potential).
3. **Cross-Border Trade**: Limited current infrastructure (601 MW intra-CAPP capacity). Planned projects aim for a >10-fold increase by 2040, driving exports to other regions.

## Key Insights from the Results
- **Renewables Dominance**: In all scenarios, renewables (especially hydropower and solar PV) meet the vast majority of demand. Fossil fuels decline below 5% by 2040.
- **Capacity Expansion**: Total regional capacity must double by 2040 (30–40 GW), driven by high demand and export ambitions. Grand Inga significantly impacts trade, reducing regional costs but displacing fossil fuel use continentally.
- **Solar and Wind Growth**: Solar PV and wind reach 7–20% of production by 2040, with solar PV growing faster due to climate conditions.
- **Trade Impact**: Cross-border connectivity increases >10-fold (10–50 GW by 2040). Trade lowers costs and emissions continentally, enhancing renewable deployment.
- **Costs**: Range widely (e.g., USD 97–145 billion cumulative costs). Investment in CAPP reduces costs continentally by displacing fossil fuels in importing regions.

## Conclusions
- Renewables are central to capacity and trade expansion, especially under existing assumptions.
- Cross-border coordination is critical for cost-effectiveness.
- Grand Inga drives regional exports and global cost reductions despite risks.

End of Summary